基于多方法集合评估的长江源区水沙变化归因分析

Attribution analysis of runoff and sediment load changes in the Source Region of the Yangtze River based on an ensemble of multiple methods

  • 摘要: 厘清气候变化与人类活动对水沙变化的相对贡献是认识高寒区水文过程的关键。本文基于1960—2021年水文、气象数据,运用双累积曲线法、累积量斜率变化率比较法和弹性系数法,系统解析流域水沙变化的驱动机制。结果表明:①1960—2021年,长江源区暖湿化特征显著,直门达站气温和降水分别以0.37 ℃/(10 a)(P<0.01)和13.58 mm/(10 a)(P<0.01)的速率显著上升。②水沙演变空间分异明显,沱沱河站与直门达站径流增加显著,新寨站则表现为水沙同步减少。③气候变化是沱沱河站与直门达站径流增加的主导驱动因素,输沙变化以人类活动为主导;新寨站水沙同步减少主要受人类活动驱动。④ 3种归因分析方法在识别主导驱动因子上较为一致,弹性系数法表现出更强的稳健性。多方法集合分析能够有效降低单一方法带来的不确定性,为高寒流域水沙变化归因提供更可靠的科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment variations is essential for understanding hydrological processes in alpine regions. Based on hydro-meteorological data from 1960 to 2021 in the source region of the Yangtze River, this study systematically analyzed the driving mechanisms of runoff and sediment dynamics using the Double Mass Curve, the Slope Changing Ratio of Cumulative Quantity, and the elasticity coefficient method. The results show that: ① A significant warming and wetting trend was observed, with temperature and precipitation at the Zhimenda Station increasing by 0.37 °C/(10a) and 13.58 mm/(10a) (P < 0.01), respectively. ② Spatial heterogeneity was evident: runoff at the Tuotuohe and Zhimenda stations increased significantly, whereas the Xinzhai Station exhibited a concurrent decrease in both runoff and sediment load. ③ Climate change was the dominant driver for increased runoff, while sediment variations were predominantly controlled by human activities at Zhimenda Station. Conversely, the synchronized decrease in runoff and sediment at the Xinzhai Station was primarily driven by human activities. The three attribution analysis methods exhibit high consistency in identifying dominant driving factors, with the elasticity coefficient method exhibiting superior robustness. Multi-method ensemble analysis effectively mitigates the uncertainty inherent in individual approach, providing a more reliable scientific basis for attributing runoff and sediment variations in alpine basins.

     

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