Abstract: The statistic downscaling models of Qinghai lake(QHSDM)are built in this paper by the output from AOGCM (Germany MPI ECHAM510)and local observed data in recent 40 years.The climate scenarios in the 30 years(2001-2030) are obtained and used to predict water-level changing of Qinghai lake in the same period.The results indicate that the water level changes of Qinghai lake would experience three phases:slowly descending,gradually ascending and steadily arising.In 2030,the lake level would rise to about 3195 14 m,about 212 m higher than present,the lake area will approach 4 500 km² and the lake storage near 8.300 millions m³,Qinghai lake turn back to the status of 1970s in 20th century.It would alleviate the present water resources tension in the catchment of Qinghai lake,recover local vegetation and reduce the soil degenerating1 In short,it is beneficial to local ecology and social economics.