利用反向法评价气候变化下的水资源系统风险
An inverse approach to evaluate the risk of water resouces under climate change
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摘要: 目前多数研究直接将大气环流模式(GCM)获得的气候要素输入水文模型或者系统动力学模型评价气候变化所引起的风险,而忽视了一些重要统计要素的实际影响。针对目前研究存在的问题,利用随机模型产生大量模拟数据并输入到关于水资源系统的系统动力模型,通过评价指数和模拟数据间的统计关系建立"气候响应模型",最终利用多种大气环流模式来进行风险评价。通过A2气候变化情景下36种GCM对美国麻州Quabbin水库未来两个时段2036—2065年和2066—2095年由气候变化引起的风险进行评价。结果表明,在1950—1999年流域净流量年际方差100%～140%范围内,2036—2065年的风险为0.25～0.30,2066—2095年的风险为0.30～0.45。Abstract: A new method to evaluate the risk of water resources under climate change is proposed.The method is mainly comprised of three steps: ① build a dynamic model representing the water resources system; ② do stochastic analysis and then build a climate response function which allows linking the climate states to the performance indicator of the water resources system; ③ the climate information of GCMs is tailed to evaluate the risk.Finally, this method is applied to evaluate the climate change induced risk in Quabbin Reservoir, Massachusetts, United of States.Through 36 GCMs in A2 scenario within two periods 2036—2065 and 2066—2095, the results show that the risk with 100%-140% historical net basin supply (NBS) annual standard deviation is between 0.25 and 0.30 in 2036—2065, and between 0.30 and 0.45 in 2066—2095.
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