变化环境下水-生态-能源-粮食纽带关系解析模拟与优化调控:进展与展望

Analysis, simulation, and optimal regulation of the Water-Ecology-Energy-Food nexus under changing environments: progress and prospects

  • 摘要: 水-生态-能源-粮食(Water-Ecology-Energy-Food,WEEF)纽带关系定量解析和协同调控是实现变化环境下资源环境可持续发展的关键举措。然而,目前在WEEF解析、模拟、优化与调控各环节仍存在诸多系统性技术挑战。本文系统梳理了国内外最新研究进展,深入分析了变化环境下WEEF纽带关系的研究重点领域,提出了未来研究的前沿领域和重点方向。解析方面,亟需发展多源异构数据融合与高维因果关系挖掘方法,实现要素间非线性相互作用与反馈机制的精准量化;模拟方面,应当发展多过程、多尺度动态耦合方法,构建融合水文过程、能源系统、农业模型与生态效应的高性能集成仿真平台,提升系统动态演化的刻画能力;优化方面,需提升超多目标优化算法的计算效率与鲁棒性,重点解决高度不确定性情景下的策略寻优与风险量化难题;调控方面,亟待探索基于数字孪生与实时反馈的自适应调控技术,实现从静态方案向动态智能决策的范式转变。目前WEEF纽带关系研究呈现三大发展趋势:一是智能驱动,依托生成式人工智能与大数据实现系统建模与策略生成的范式变革;二是融合创新,基于标准化接口与云原生架构构建模块化模型集成环境,支持多技术路径快速验证;三是决策赋能,发展增强分析与交互式可视化技术,打造沉浸式决策支持系统。本文旨在构建“感知-认知-预测-调控”一体化技术体系,为变化环境下区域与全球可持续发展提供核心科技支撑。

     

    Abstract: The coordinated regulation of the Water-Ecology-Energy-Food (WEEF) nexus represents a critical pathway to achieving sustainable resource and environmental development under changing conditions. However, numerous systematic technical challenges persist across the analysis, simulation, optimization, and regulation stages. This study addresses these challenges through a comprehensive framework. In the analysis stage, it is imperative to develop methodologies integrating multi-source heterogeneous data fusion with high-dimensional causal relationship mining to achieve precise quantification of nonlinear interactions and feedback mechanisms among system components. In the simulation stage, multi-process, multi-scale dynamic coupling methods should be developed to construct high-performance integrated simulation platforms encompassing hydrological processes, energy systems, agricultural models, and ecological effects, thereby enhancing the capability to characterize system dynamic evolution. In the optimization stage, the computational efficiency and robustness of ultra-multi-objective optimization algorithms must be substantially improved, with particular focus on strategy optimization and risk quantification under deep uncertainty scenarios. In the regulation stage, this study explores adaptive control technologies leveraging digital twins and real-time feedback to achieve a transition from static schemes to dynamic intelligent decision-making. Looking forward,, WEEF nexus research is expected to exhibit three major developmental trends: ① Intelligence-driven transformation, harnessing generative artificial intelligence and big data to revolutionize system modeling and strategy generation paradigms. ② Integration and innovation, establishing modular model integration environments based on standardized interfaces and cloud-native architecture to facilitate rapid verification of multiple technical pathways. ③Decision empowerment, developing enhanced analytics and interactive visualization technologies to build immersive decision support systems. Ultimately, this study aims to establish an integrated "perception-cognition-prediction-regulation" technological framework to provide core scientific and technological support for regional and global sustainable development.

     

/

返回文章
返回