面向洪涝灾害损失的降水指标适用性对比分析

Evaluation of precipitation indices for flood impact assessment in China

  • 摘要: 降水指标适用性评估是洪涝灾害损失分析的重要内容。面向2002—2023年中国31个省(区、市)年洪涝灾害损失,本文构建稳态和非稳态损失模型,通过拟合优度(R2)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)和均方根误差(ERMS)对比分析了13个常用降水指标的适用性。结果表明:①12个月标准化降水指数(SPI-12)在全样本上的适用性整体最高但在高损失年份上的表现较不稳定,非稳态模型下对受灾人口和直接经济损失的R2中位数分别为0.50和0.52;由于没有考虑多年降水的分布,平均日降水强度和日降水量≥20.0 mm的日数适用性略低于SPI-12,对受灾人口的R2中位数分别为0.48和0.46,对直接经济损失的R2中位数分别为0.36和0.38。②尽管非稳态模型引入了时间项,降水指标的BIC中位数与稳态模型相当或更低。③相比于面积加权,暴露度(人口和GDP)加权有助于降低部分降水指标拟合洪涝灾害损失的ERMS,特别是降水量和降水距平。整体上,遴选合适的降水指标对于洪涝灾害损失评估具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: The evaluation of the applicability of precipitation indices is a critical component in flood impact analysis. Focusing on annual flood loss across 31 provinces of China from 2002 to 2023, this paper constructs both stationary and nonstationary loss models and comparatively evaluate the applicability of 13 commonly used precipitation indices using goodness-of-fit (R2), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and root mean square error (ERMS). The results show that:①The 12-month standardized precipitation index (SPI-12) exhibits overall the highest applicability across the full sample, yet its performance is relatively unstable in high-loss years. Under the nonstationary model, the median R2 values for affected population and direct economic loss are 0.50 and 0.52, respectively. The simple daily intensity index and the number of days with daily precipitation ≥ 20.0 mm show slightly lower applicability than SPI-12, as they fail to account for the distribution of multi-year precipitation—their median R2 values for affected population are 0.48 and 0.46, and for direct economic loss are 0.36 and 0.38, respectively. ②Despite the inclusion of a time term in the nonstationary model, the median BIC values of the precipitation indices remain comparable to or lower than those of the stationary model. ③Compared to area weighting, the exposure-based weighting (population and GDP) helps to reduce the ERMS of some precipitation indices in fitting flood loss, especially annual total wet-day precipitation and precipitation anomaly. Overall, the rational selection of precipitation indices is important for flood impact assessment.

     

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