长江流域降水极值的变化趋势

Trends in precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River basin

  • 摘要: 依据1960-2005年长江流域147个气象站逐日降水,ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式模拟的长江流域79个格点20世纪实验期(1941-2000年)以及未来3种排放情景(SRES-B1,A1B,A2)下21世纪前50年逐日降水数据,建立年最大强降水和汛期<1.27 mm/d的最长干旱持续天数序列。运用广义极值分布,广义帕雷托分布,广义逻辑分布与韦克比分布等4种分布函数定量拟合了长江流域降水极值的概率分布。研究表明:韦克比分布函数能够较好地拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布。在3种排放情景下,未来降水极值的重现期呈现不同的空间分布特征。长江流域,尤其是中下游大部地区,1951-2000年间的50年一遇强降水和干旱事件,在2001-2050年间发展成为25年一遇降水极值事件。未来气候变暖条件下,降水极值重现期出现的这种变化趋势,将会对水资源趋势产生重大的影响。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily observational precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin during 1960-2005,the projected daily data at 79 grids from ECHAM5/MPI-OM in the 20th and the former half of the 21st century,time series of precipitation extremes which contain AM(Annual Maximum) and MI (Munger Index) are constructed.To quantify the characteristics of flood-drought events over the Yangtze River Basin,four distribution functions are used,namely,General Extreme value (GEV),General Pareto (GPA),General Logistic (GLO) and Wakeby (WAK).It is proved that WAK can describe the probability distribution of precipitation extremes quite well calculated from observed and projected data..The return period of precipitation extremes show spatially different changes under thee greenhouse gases emission scenarios.The 50-year heavy precipitation and drought events from simulated data during 1951-2000 will be more frequent and become the 25-year events for the most midlower Yangtze region in 2001-2050.The changing character of return levels of precipitation extremes should be taken into account for the future water resource management.

     

/

返回文章
返回