实时洪水预报误差多断面联合校正方法

Multi-site joint correction method for real-time flood forecasting errors

  • 摘要: 实时校正是提高河道洪水预报精度的重要方法。针对终端校正方法难以描述误差空间传递、传统自回归方法回归系数不稳定等问题,本文提出一种耦合自适应岭回归与马斯京根矩阵方程的多断面联合校正方法(RRAR-Mafa),对马斯京根矩阵方程进行改进,推导出适用于任意拓扑结构河网的误差空间传递方程,并耦合岭回归方法,搭建一个考虑时间、空间双维度的通用校正框架,在淮河中游河段实例验证。结果表明:洪峰流量相对误差绝对值均值由校正前的21.56%下降到3.84%,纳什效率系数均值由校正前的0.67提高到0.98,原始预报结果精度越差,校正效果越显著;RRAR-Mafa方法可以实现多步长连续校正,校正效果优于自回归(AR)模型与岭回归(RRAR)模型,且8场洪水平均效果10步之内仍然有效,其中5场洪水校正效果较好。本研究为复杂河系洪水预报误差校正提供了一种通用的解决方案,可有效提升洪水预报精度,延长校正预见期。

     

    Abstract: Real-time correction is an essential technique for enhancing the accuracy of river flood forecasts. To overcome the challenges of terminal correction methods in describing spatial error propagation and the coefficient instability inherent in traditional autoregressive models, this study proposes a multi-site joint correction approach that integrates Adaptive Ridge Regression with the Muskingum Matrix Equation (RRAR-Mafa). The Muskingum matrix equation is refined to derive a generalized spatial error propagation formulation applicable to river networks with arbitrary topological configurations. By incorporating ridge regression, a unified correction framework is developed that simultaneously accounts for temporal and spatial dimensions. The framework is validated through case studies conducted in the middle reaches of the Huai River. Results demonstrate that the mean absolute relative error of peak discharge decreased from 21.56% before correction to 3.84% after correction, while the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency improved from 0.67 to 0.98. Greater improvements were observed in cases with lower initial forecast accuracy. The RRAR-Mafa method enables continuous multi-lead-time correction and outperforms both the Autoregressive (AR) and Ridge Regression (RRAR) models. It remained effective within 10 time steps for all eight analyzed flood events, with five events exhibiting particularly strong correction performance. This study provides a generalized and efficient solution for error correction in flood forecasting across complex river networks, offering substantial improvements in forecast accuracy and extended correction lead time.

     

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