海河流域ET0演变规律及灵敏度分析

Potential evapotranspiration evolution rule and its sensitivity analysis in Haihe River basin

  • 摘要: 根据国家气象站1956-2000年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式和灵敏指数法,分析了海河流域潜在蒸发蒸腾(ET0)的演变规律及与气象要素的灵敏关系。结果表明:全流域45年ET0呈下降趋势,但年际间呈现4个阶段;逐旬呈倒"V"字型,61.6%集中于4月中旬到8月上旬。在空间上,年和旬值呈现上游小下游大。通过ET0与气象要素演变的比较及灵敏性分析发现,全流域年ET0演变与年均风速、日照时数以及短波辐射相似,与温度相反。旬ET0演变与旬平均温度、实际水汽压、日照时数以及短波辐射相似,但对各要素的灵敏系数以短波辐射最大,其它要素则随时空变化,且彼此的灵敏系数相差较大。分析表明在气象要素的综合作用下,造成全流域ET0降低的主要原因可能在于短波辐射、日照时数的变化。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily climatic data from the nation weather station in 1956-2000,the paper employs the P-M equation and the sensitivity coefficient method to analyze the evolution rule of the potential evapotranspiration(ET0)and the sensitivity relation of ET0 to climatic variables in Haihe River basin.The results indicate that the annual ET0 series appears decreasing trend with four different sub-stages in the recent 45 years.The multi-annual ten-day average ET0 shows inverse "V" shape, and 61.6% of the whole ET0 amount occurs in the middle-April to the up-August.In space,the multi-annual ten-day average and the annual ET0 have an increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream.Compared with the evolution rule of the climatic variables and the sensitivity of ET0 to them,the evolution rule of the annual ET0 in the whole basin is similar to that of the multi-annual average wind speed,sunshine time and short wave radiation,and inverses to that of the multi-annual average temperature.The evolution rule of the multi-annual ten-day average ET0 has same trend to that of the temperature,actual vapor,and sunshine time,as wel as the short wave radiation.However,in all the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 to these climatic variables,that of ET0 to short wave radiation is maximum in the whole year and the second water resources districts.The sensitivity of the ET0 to any other climatic variables is different in time and space,and the values of sensitivity coefficients vary greatly.According to the analysis above,the ET0cs decreasing trend in the whole basin may be caused by the change of short wave radiation and sunshine time.

     

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