国家水网背景下调水工程运行风险评估技术研究进展

Research progress on operational risk assessment technologies for water transfer projects in the background of the National Water Network

  • 摘要: 重大调水工程作为国家水网的主骨架与大动脉,是破解水资源时空分布不均、保障国家水安全的关键基础设施。此类工程因线路长、建筑物多,加之受全球气候变化与沿线经济社会发展影响,运行风险呈现多源耦合、动态演化、链式传导等特征,亟需系统性评估技术支撑全链条管控。为此,本文系统梳理调水工程运行风险评估技术的发展历程,厘清国内外演进路径差异;构建工程安全、供水安全、经济社会、生态环境4类风险的层级化分类体系,总结关键风险因子识别方法;重点阐述传统静态风险评估、系统风险综合评估、风险智能动态评估3类评估技术的要点、相互逻辑关系及适用场景,结合南水北调、引汉济渭等工程实践验证评估技术有效性。剖析当前存在的风险耦合与动态演化机理研究不足、生态社会风险统一量化体系缺乏、风险协同评估框架缺失三大瓶颈,提出通过构建风险动态耦合模型、建立风险多维度量化体系、研发风险协同评估平台、完善协作机制与评估标准体系,推动风险评估技术向智能化、系统化转变,为重大调水工程安全韧性运行提供理论支撑与技术参考。

     

    Abstract: As the main framework and arterial network of the National Water Network, major water transfer projects are key infrastructure facilities for addressing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and safeguarding national water security. Owing to their long routes, numerous structures, and the impacts of global climate change as well as economic and social development along the routes, the operational risks of such projects exhibit characteristics including multi-source coupling, dynamic evolution, and chain transmission. There is an urgent need for systematic assessment technologies to support the full-chain management and control of these risks. Therefore, this paper systematically reviews the development history of operational risk assessment technologies for water transfer projects and clarifies the differentiated evolution paths at home and abroad. It constructs a hierarchical classification system for four types of risks (engineering safety, water supply security, economic and social impacts, and ecological environment) and summarizes the identification methods for key risk factors. The paper focuses on expounding the key points, mutual logical relationships, and applicable scenarios of three types of assessment technologies: traditional static risk assessment, comprehensive system risk assessment, and intelligent dynamic risk assessment. The effectiveness of these assessment technologies is verified through practical engineering cases such as the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Transfer Project. It further analyzes three major current bottlenecks: insufficient research on the mechanism of risk coupling and dynamic evolution, lack of a unified quantification system for ecological and social risks, and absence of a collaborative risk assessment framework. Finally, the paper proposes to promote the transformation of risk assessment technologies toward intelligence and systematization by constructing dynamic risk coupling models, establishing multi-dimensional risk quantification systems, developing collaborative risk assessment platforms, and improving coordination mechanisms and assessment standard systems. This study provides theoretical support and technical references for the safe and resilient operation of major water transfer projects.

     

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