Abstract:
As the main framework and arterial network of the National Water Network, major water transfer projects are key infrastructure facilities for addressing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and safeguarding national water security. Owing to their long routes, numerous structures, and the impacts of global climate change as well as economic and social development along the routes, the operational risks of such projects exhibit characteristics including multi-source coupling, dynamic evolution, and chain transmission. There is an urgent need for systematic assessment technologies to support the full-chain management and control of these risks. Therefore, this paper systematically reviews the development history of operational risk assessment technologies for water transfer projects and clarifies the differentiated evolution paths at home and abroad. It constructs a hierarchical classification system for four types of risks (engineering safety, water supply security, economic and social impacts, and ecological environment) and summarizes the identification methods for key risk factors. The paper focuses on expounding the key points, mutual logical relationships, and applicable scenarios of three types of assessment technologies: traditional static risk assessment, comprehensive system risk assessment, and intelligent dynamic risk assessment. The effectiveness of these assessment technologies is verified through practical engineering cases such as the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the Hanjiang-to-Weihe Water Transfer Project. It further analyzes three major current bottlenecks: insufficient research on the mechanism of risk coupling and dynamic evolution, lack of a unified quantification system for ecological and social risks, and absence of a collaborative risk assessment framework. Finally, the paper proposes to promote the transformation of risk assessment technologies toward intelligence and systematization by constructing dynamic risk coupling models, establishing multi-dimensional risk quantification systems, developing collaborative risk assessment platforms, and improving coordination mechanisms and assessment standard systems. This study provides theoretical support and technical references for the safe and resilient operation of major water transfer projects.