1960—2024年长江流域泥沙变化及其驱动因素

Sediment load changes in the Yangtze River Basin and their driving factors from 1960 to 2024

  • 摘要: 泥沙输移是长江流域工程建设与水土资源保护利用中的关键科学问题。本文基于1960—2024年长江流域干支流13个水文站输沙量及175个气象站观测资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验、有序聚类及双累积曲线等方法,研究长江流域泥沙时空演变及其驱动因素。结果表明:①长江干流年输沙量呈显著下降趋势(P<0.01),向家坝站输沙量于2010年发生突变,其余各站突变点均出现在2001年,突变后输沙量降幅达67.76%~90.04%。②2001年后,8条主要支流的输沙模数普遍锐减,其中汉江、沅江降幅超过80%,显著改变了干流沿程的泥沙冲淤格局;寸滩—宜昌段由冲刷转为淤积,宜昌—汉口段由淤积转为冲刷。③降雨对输沙量增加的潜在贡献约为5%,但被强烈的人类活动所抵消;梯级水库群的拦截作用与水土保持工程实施是导致长江干支流输沙量锐减的主要驱动因素。

     

    Abstract: Sediment transport is a key scientific concern in water engineering and in the management of soil and water resources in the Yangtze River Basin. Using observed sediment discharge data from 13 hydrological stations located along the mainstream and major tributaries, together with precipitation records from 175 meteorological stations during 1960—2024, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in sediment load and its main influencing factors. The Mann-Kendall test, sequential clustering analysis, and double mass curve method were applied. The results indicate a significant downward trend in annual sediment load along the Yangtze River mainstream (P < 0.01). A major abrupt change occurred at Xiangjiaba Station in 2010, while abrupt changes at the other stations were identified in 2001. After these transition points, sediment load declined by 67.76%—90.04%. Since 2001, the sediment yield modulus of the eight major tributaries has also decreased markedly, with reductions of more than 80% in the Hanjiang and Yuanjiang rivers. These changes have substantially reshaped the erosion–deposition pattern along the mainstream. The Cuntan—Yichang reach changed from an erosional state to a depositional state, whereas the Yichang—Hankou reach changed from deposition to erosion. Precipitation accounted for approximately 5% of the potential increase in sediment load; however, this influence was largely counteracted by intensive human activities. Overall, sediment retention by cascade reservoir systems and the implementation of soil and water conservation measures were the dominant factors leading to the sharp reduction in sediment load in the Yangtze River mainstream and its tributaries.

     

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