耦合SWAT与深度学习的径流模拟

Runoff simulation by coupling SWAT with deep learning

  • 摘要: 为提高径流模拟精度并增强水文模型可解释性,本研究构建了SWAT与深度学习耦合的模型。模型运用贝叶斯方法进行参数优化,并通过Stacking集成策略融合各模型,以降低高流量预报的不确定性。研究结果表明:耦合模型在决定系数(R2)、纳什效率系数(ENS)、平均绝对误差(EMA)等指标均优于单一模型,其中SWAT-LSTM在测试期的R2ENSEMA分别为0.766、0.761和4.93 m3/s;SHAP可解释性分析表明,LSTM因依赖序列记忆而受降水因子影响,Transformer通过自注意力机制则更关注侧向流因子,揭示了不同深度学习模型可有效捕捉水文过程中的不同特征;此外,基于Stacking的集成模型在测试期预报的平均ENS达到0.81。本研究为智能水文模拟与预报提供了兼具精度与可解释性的建模思路。

     

    Abstract: To improve the accuracy of runoff simulation and enhance the interpretability of hydrological models, this study constructs a coupled model that integrates SWAT and deep learning. The Bayesian method is conducted for the optimization of parameters and the Stacking ensemble strategy is used to integrate the outputs of individual model during model construction in order to reduce the uncertainties of high-flow predictions. The results show that the coupled model is better than any single model in terms of higher coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (ENS) and lower mean absolute error (EMA). Specifically, the R2, ENS and EMA obtained from SWAT-LSTM are close to 0.766, 0.761 and 4.93 m3/s, respectively, in the testing phase. By introducing the SHAP-based interpretability analysis, the results also indicate that the performance of LSTM is mostly dominated by the precipitation because of its characteristic of sequential memory, whereas the Transformer focuses on lateral flow through its self-attention mechanism, revealing that the characteristics of hydrological processes can be effectively captured by different deep learning models. Moreover, the performance of the Stacking-based ensemble model is close to an average of 0.81 in terms of ENS in the testing phase. This study provides a modeling approach for intelligent hydrological simulation and forecasting that maintain acceptable accuracy and interpretability.

     

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