气候变化和人类活动对中国陆地水储量变化的作用机制

Mechanisms of climate change and human activities affecting terrestrial water storage changes in China

  • 摘要: 为揭示气候变化与人类活动对中国陆地水储量异常的相对贡献,构建融合GRACE/GRACE-FO卫星数据、多源气候因子与改进水量平衡模型的综合评估框架。通过机器学习方法填补2017—2018年数据缺口,引入改进的梯度提升机模型结合降水、气温与蒸散发等因子重构气候驱动型陆地水储量异常,在中国九大流域均表现出较高拟合精度(相关系数均超过0.9)。结果表明:2005—2020年全国陆地水储量整体呈下降趋势,海河(−14.64 mm/a)和淮河(−11.74 mm/a)流域下降最显著,长江与珠江则表现为上升趋势;贡献率分析发现,干旱与半干旱区人类活动的影响持续增强,黄河流域在2017年已达到近90%,而湿润区主要受气候变化驱动。研究结果为识别关键影响因素与支撑区域水资源管理提供了量化依据。

     

    Abstract: To quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) in China, an integrated assessment framework was developed by combining GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite data, multi-source climate factors, and an improved water balance model. A machine learning approach was used to fill the data gap between 2017 and 2018, and an enhanced Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model was applied to reconstruct climate-driven TWSA based on precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. The reconstructed results achieved high fitting accuracy across nine major river basins (R > 0.9). Results indicate a declining trend in national TWSA from 2005 to 2020, with the most significant decreases observed in the Haihe (−14.64 mm/a) and Huaihe (−11.74 mm/a) River basins, while the Yangtze and Pearl River basins showed increasing trends. Attribution analysis reveals a growing influence of human activities in arid and semi-arid regions, with the Yellow River basin reaching nearly 90% contribution from human activities by 2017, whereas humid regions remained predominantly climate-driven. These findings provide quantitative insights into key influencing factors and support regional water resource management under changing climate conditions. To quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) in China, we develop an integrated assessment framework that combines GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations, multi-source climatic factors, and an improved water balance model. Machine learning is used to fill the data gap between 2017 and 2018, and an improved gradient boosting machine model is introduced to reconstruct climate-driven TWSA based on precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration, and other factors, achieving high fitting accuracy across China’s nine major river basins (correlation coefficients all exceed 0.9). The results indicate that terrestrial water storage in China showed an overall declining trend during 2005—2020, with the most pronounced decreases occurring in the Haihe (−14.64 mm/a) and Huaihe (−11.74 mm/a) river basins, while the Yangtze and Pearl River basins exhibited increasing trends. Contribution analysis reveals that the influence of human activities has continued to intensify in arid and semi-arid regions, with their contribution in the Yellow River basin reaching nearly 90% by 2017, whereas TWSA in humid regions is mainly driven by climate change. These findings provide a quantitative basis for identifying key driving factors and supporting regional water resources management.

     

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