台风影响下黄浦江复合洪水的时空演变与重现期分析

Spatiotemporal evolution and return period analysis of compound floods along the Huangpu River in Shanghai under typhoon influence

  • 摘要: 为揭示超大城市沿江典型区域复合洪水的风险演化特征及台风影响机制,基于2002—2024年黄浦江上中下游三站实测降雨、潮位及台风数据,采用超阈值法识别极端与复合洪水事件,构建Copula联合分布模型,系统分析复合洪水的时空分布格局、上下游分异性及其对台风的响应特征。结果表明:①复合洪水事件多集中于7—9月,呈现“上游暴雨主导型、中下游潮雨协同型”空间分异格局,近年来频次与强度显著上升,尤以上游风险增幅最为显著;②超过1/3的复合洪水受台风影响,台风通过增强潮位极值或暴雨强度,显著改变联合风险结构;③复合洪水重现期在不同河段存在明显差异,上下游区域的复合洪水重现期分别由台风增水与台风暴雨主导。研究成果可为沿海超大城市复合洪水风险识别与分区防控提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: To reveal the risk evolution characteristics of compound floods in typical riverine areas of mega coastal cities, this study utilized observed rainfall, tidal level, and typhoon data from three representative stations along the Huangpu River in Shanghai from 2002 to 2024. The peaks-over-threshold method was employed to identify extreme and compound flood events. Copula-based joint probability models were constructed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns, spatial heterogeneity, and the response characteristics of compound floods to typhoons. The results show that: ①Compound flood events are predominantly concentrated from July to September, exhibiting a spatial differentiation pattern of "rainfall-dominated type in the upper reaches and rainfall-tide compound type in the middle and lower reaches." In recent years, both the frequency and intensity of compound floods have increased significantly, with the most pronounced risk escalation in the upper reaches; ②More than one-third of compound flood events are associated with typhoons, which significantly alter the joint risk structure by intensifying extreme tidal levels or rainfall, with tidal effects dominating in the lower reaches and rainfall effects dominating in the upper reaches; ③The return periods of compound floods show significant spatial differences across river segments, with typhoon-induced storm surge and typhoon rainfall dominating the return periods in the lower and upper reaches, respectively. These findings provide important scientific references for the risk identification and prevention of compound floods in mega coastal cities.

     

/

返回文章
返回