耦合不确定性的城市排水系统实时控制研究进展

Research progress on real-time control of urban drainage systems considering uncertainty

  • 摘要: 气候变化和快速城市化背景下,城市排水基础设施与城市发展需求的不匹配愈加显著,城市排水系统溢流问题日益突出。实时控制可显著提高城市排水系统的运行效率,是缓解排水系统溢流的有效途径。然而,城市排水系统的复杂水力特性及运行环境的恶劣性使其实时控制面临诸多不确定性的挑战,存在溢流控制效益不显著甚至失效的问题。本文梳理了城市排水系统实时控制的不确定性来源,从数据不确定性、实时控制方法不确定性、过程模型不确定性和排水条件变化4个角度分析了不确定性对实时控制效益的影响;其次,从不确定性表征、耦合不确定性因素的实时控制建模以及实时控制模型的高效稳健求解3个方面总结了不确定性条件下的城市排水系统实时控制研究进展;最后,针对当前研究面临的挑战,提出未来可从数据观测误差对实时控制的影响、应对突发事件的风险控制策略、耦合多维不确定性的多目标控制模型以及实时控制模型的时效性提升等方面进一步开展研究。

     

    Abstract: Climate change and rapid urbanization pose severe risks to urban drainage systems (UDSs). In particular, the mismatch between urban drainage infrastructure and urban development needs is increasingly likely to cause UDS overflows. Real-time control (RTC) has the potential to significantly improve the operational efficiency of UDSs, providing an effective means of alleviating these overflows. However, the uncertainties associated with the complex hydraulic characteristics and harsh operating environment of UDSs mean that RTC may be ineffective or provide only insignificant benefits. This paper reviews the causes and analyzes the influence of these uncertainties from the perspectives of data, RTC methods, process models, and drainage conditions. Research progress on the RTC of UDSs is summarized in terms of uncertainty characterization and RTC modeling, which combines uncertain variables with efficient and robust solutions. Potential research directions are proposed as a means of addressing the limitations of previous studies, including the impact of data observation errors on RTC, risk control strategies for responding to emergencies, multiobjective control models that couple multidimensional uncertainties, and improving the timeliness of RTC models.

     

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