基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测

万新宇; 包为民; 王光谦

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基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测

万新宇, 包为民, 王光谦

文章导航 > 水科学进展 > 2010 > 21(1): 36-42

万新宇, 包为民, 王光谦. 基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

引用本文:

万新宇, 包为民, 王光谦. 基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

WAN Xin-yu, BAO Wei-min, WANG Guang-qian. Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

Citation:

WAN Xin-yu, BAO Wei-min, WANG Guang-qian. Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测

1.
清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 北京, 100084;
2.
河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679024)

详细信息

作者简介:
万新宇(1976- ),男,江苏东台人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事洪水预报和水库调度方面的研究.E-mail:wanxinyu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.

中图分类号: P338.5;P343.3

Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers

1.
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2.
College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50679024).

摘要: 坝址含沙量过程是合理进行水库水沙调度的重要依据.在浑水总流模型的基础上,提出了基于洪水相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测方法.通过聚类分析将洪水案例分组,并分别率定模型参数;根据洪水相似性动态选择未知洪水模型参数;进行模型计算.结果表明,分组率定参数一定程度上能够提高坝址含沙量预测精度,尤其是沙峰出现时刻.这对指导水库水沙调度具有实际意义,有助于决策者制定合理的排沙时机,提高排沙效率.
- 水库 /
- 坝址 /
- 洪水 /
- 含沙量 /
- 总流模型 /
- 相似性
Abstract: Better knowledge of sediment concentrating processes for reservoir dam sites is crucial in reservoir water and sediment operations.In this study,a flood similarity-based method is developed for predicting reservoir sediment concentrations in heavily sediment-laden rivers.The method uses the main principle of the total flow model for sandy rivers.An approach based on the cluster analysis of historical flood events is employed in the model application.The events are first grouped and then used separately in calibrating the similarity-based method.Thus,the same group flood events will always share the same set of model parameter values in the model applications,and the idea is also applicable to the future flood events.Model validation results show that the sediment concentrating process of reservoir dam-sites can be better predicted with the grouped parameter values.The improvement is especially significant in predicting the peak value of sediment concentrations.The similarity-based method could be potentially useful in the decision making process of reservoir sediment flushing.
- reservoir /
- dam-site /
- flood /
- sediment concentration /
- total sandy-flow model /
- similarity

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基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测

1. 清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 北京, 100084;

2. 河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679024)

作者简介:
万新宇(1976- ),男,江苏东台人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事洪水预报和水库调度方面的研究.E-mail:wanxinyu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.

收稿日期: 2009-02-19
刊出日期: 2010-01-25

中图分类号: P338.5;P343.3

关键词:

水库 /

坝址 /

洪水 /

含沙量 /

总流模型 /

相似性

摘要: 坝址含沙量过程是合理进行水库水沙调度的重要依据.在浑水总流模型的基础上,提出了基于洪水相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测方法.通过聚类分析将洪水案例分组,并分别率定模型参数;根据洪水相似性动态选择未知洪水模型参数;进行模型计算.结果表明,分组率定参数一定程度上能够提高坝址含沙量预测精度,尤其是沙峰出现时刻.这对指导水库水沙调度具有实际意义,有助于决策者制定合理的排沙时机,提高排沙效率.

English Abstract

Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

2. College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50679024).

Received Date: 2009-02-19
Publish Date: 2010-01-25

Keywords:

Abstract: Better knowledge of sediment concentrating processes for reservoir dam sites is crucial in reservoir water and sediment operations.In this study,a flood similarity-based method is developed for predicting reservoir sediment concentrations in heavily sediment-laden rivers.The method uses the main principle of the total flow model for sandy rivers.An approach based on the cluster analysis of historical flood events is employed in the model application.The events are first grouped and then used separately in calibrating the similarity-based method.Thus,the same group flood events will always share the same set of model parameter values in the model applications,and the idea is also applicable to the future flood events.Model validation results show that the sediment concentrating process of reservoir dam-sites can be better predicted with the grouped parameter values.The improvement is especially significant in predicting the peak value of sediment concentrations.The similarity-based method could be potentially useful in the decision making process of reservoir sediment flushing.

万新宇, 包为民, 王光谦. 基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

引用本文:

万新宇, 包为民, 王光谦. 基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测[J]. 水科学进展, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

WAN Xin-yu, BAO Wei-min, WANG Guang-qian. Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

Citation:

WAN Xin-yu, BAO Wei-min, WANG Guang-qian. Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2010, 21(1): 36-42.

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基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测

作者简介: 万新宇(1976- ),男,江苏东台人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事洪水预报和水库调度方面的研究.E-mail:wanxinyu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.

Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers

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基于相似性的多沙水库坝址含沙量预测

1. 清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 北京, 100084; 2. 河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098

作者简介: 万新宇(1976- ),男,江苏东台人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事洪水预报和水库调度方面的研究.E-mail:wanxinyu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.

English Abstract

Similarity-based prediction of sediment concentrations for reservoir dam-sites in sediment-laden rivers

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

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目录

作者简介:
万新宇(1976- ),男,江苏东台人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事洪水预报和水库调度方面的研究.E-mail:wanxinyu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.

1. 清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室, 北京, 100084;

2. 河海大学水文水资源学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098

作者简介:
万新宇(1976- ),男,江苏东台人,助理研究员,博士,主要从事洪水预报和水库调度方面的研究.E-mail:wanxinyu@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.

1. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

2. College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China