Similarities and differences of hydrologic frequency distribution models and their parameter estimation problems
-
摘要: 回顾了20世纪50年代对水文频率分布模型异同性的认识,分析了分布模型在统计特征上的相异性与共通性。在分布的几何形态相同的条件下,目前所用的分布模型中,仅3个参数的模型基本上是相异的。通过观察与实例分析,初步发现,取4个参数,有可能使模型有统一的求解结果。用数学方法能得到参数的唯一解,但多数方法是先计算出不确定性较大的CS值,继而据此算得其它一个或两个参数,故这种结果是一种初值,有待通过合理性分析,才能得到最终取用值。Abstract: The consensus since 1950s on the similarities and differences of hydrologic frequency distribution models is reviewed.The similarities and differences of statistical characteristics in these models are analyzed.Under the condition of having the same distribution of geometric shapes,the currently used models with only 3 parameters are essentially different.Observations and real case studies reveal that a unique solution might be existed if a 4-parameter model is considered.We have obtained a unique solution in model parameter estimation using mathematic methods.However,as discussed in the paper,most others first calculate the parameter CS value that is subjected to larger uncertainty and the CS value is then used in the calculation of other one or two parameters,which also contain larger uncertainty.As such,the results can only be taken as the initial estimation of model parameters.The rational analysis must be used to finalize the model parameters.
-
[1] HOSKING J R M,WALLIS J R.Regional frequency analysis:An approach based on L-moments[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997. [2] CUNNANE C.Statistical distribution for flood frequency analysis[R].Geneva:WMO Operational Hydrology Report,1989. [3] ROBSON A,REED D.Statistical procedure for flood frequency analysis[C]//Flood Estimation Handbook.Vol 30xfordside:Institute of Hydrology,Growmarch grifford,Wiilingford,UK,1999. [4] RAO A R,HAMED K H.Flood frequency analysis[M].Boca Raton:CRC Press,2000. [5] 陈元芳,王庆荣,沙志贵,等.线性矩法在长江中下游区域水文频率计算中的应用[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2003,31 (2):207-211.(CHEN Yuan-fang,WANG Qing-rong,SHA Zhi-gui,et al.Application of L-moment based regional flood frequency analysis method to middle and lower Yangtze River[J].Journal of Hohai University:Natural Sciences,2003,31 (2):207-211.(in Chinese)) [6] 肖义,郭生练,刘攀,等.分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准关系研究[J].水科学进展,2008,19(1):54-60.(XIAO Yi,GUO Sheng-lian,LIU Pan,et al.Seasonal flood frequency analysis and flood prevention standard[J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19(1):54-60.(in Chinese)) [7] 刘九夫,谢白银,鲍振鑫,等.洪水频率分析的次序统计量[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):179-187.(LIU Jiu-fu,XIE Zi-yin,BAO Zhen-xin,et al.Order statistics in flood frequency analysis[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21 (2):179-187.(in Chinese)) [8] 中华人民共和国水利部.SL44-2006水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.(Ministry of Water Resources.SL 44-2006 Regulation for calculating design flood of water resources and hydropower projects[S].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2006.(in Chinese)) [9] 中华人民共和国水利部.SL 278-2002水利水电工程水文计算规范[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.(Ministry of Water Resources.SL 278-2002 Regulation for hydrologic computation of water resources and hydropower projects[S].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2002.(in Chinese)) [10] 金光炎.水文统计原理与方法[M].北京:中国工业出版社,1964.(JIN Guang-yan.Principle and methods of hydrologic statistics[M].Beijing:China Industry Press,1964.(in Chinese)) [11] 金光炎.水文水资源随机分析[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1993.(JIN Guang-yan.Stochastic analysis of hydrology and water resources[M].Beijing:China Science and Technology Press,1993.(in Chinese)) -

计量
- 文章访问数: 9
- HTML全文浏览量: 3
- PDF下载量: 728
- 被引次数: 0