北京地区强降水极端气候事件阈值

李庆祥; 黄嘉佑

北京地区强降水极端气候事件阈值

李庆祥¹,
黄嘉佑²

1.
国家气象信息中心, 北京, 100081;
2.
北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系, 北京, 100871

基金项目: “十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2007BAC29B01-01)

详细信息

作者简介:
李庆祥(1973- ),男,湖南新宁人,研究员,博士,主要从事气候变化方面研究.E- mail:liqx@cma.gov.cn

中图分类号: P426.6
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2009-06-10
- 刊出日期: 2010-09-24

Study on threshold values with an extreme events of precipitation in Beijing

LI Qing-xiang¹,
HUANG Jia-you²

1.
National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100871, China;
2.
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 11th Five year Plan Period(No.2007BAC29B01-01).

摘要

摘要: 根据北京地区1951～2008年逐日降水量资料,采用排序法、插值法、正态变换法、平方根变换法和立方根变换法等5种计算阈值的方法,对强降水极端气候事件阈值的确定问题进行研究。研究结果表明,确定日降水量百分位阈值的方法,在5种计算阈值的方法中,平方根变换方法得到最好的效果。在阈值确定的样本中,可以使用30年滑动气候阶段的样本得到的阈值平均值,作为极端气候事件阈值。
- 日降水量 /
- 极端气候事件 /
- 阈值 /
- 北京
Abstract: Using daily precipitation data for the period of 1951-2008 in Beijing,the study on the threshold values falling above the percentiles of the extreme events of precipitation,and the calculation of the threshold values with five methods,which are sorting,in terpolated,normal distribution transformation,square-root transformation,and cube root transformation,are researched in this paper.The results show that the evaluation of the threshold values using the method of square-root translation has the best effect in five methods.The mean of the threshold values on 30 year moving climatic period can be as the extreme events of daily precipitation in climate.
- daily precipitation /
- extreme clmiatic events /
- threshold /
- Beijing

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参考文献(17)

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北京地区强降水极端气候事件阈值

作者简介: 李庆祥(1973- ),男,湖南新宁人,研究员,博士,主要从事气候变化方面研究.E- mail:liqx@cma.gov.cn

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出版历程

Study on threshold values with an extreme events of precipitation in Beijing

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
李庆祥(1973- ),男,湖南新宁人,研究员,博士,主要从事气候变化方面研究.E- mail:liqx@cma.gov.cn