周晓阳, 张勇传. 洪水的分类预测及优化调度[J]. 水科学进展, 1997, 8(2): 123-129.
引用本文: 周晓阳, 张勇传. 洪水的分类预测及优化调度[J]. 水科学进展, 1997, 8(2): 123-129.
Zhou Xiaoyang, Zhang Yongchuan. Flood Classifying Prediction and Optimal Flood Dispatching[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1997, 8(2): 123-129.
Citation: Zhou Xiaoyang, Zhang Yongchuan. Flood Classifying Prediction and Optimal Flood Dispatching[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1997, 8(2): 123-129.

洪水的分类预测及优化调度

Flood Classifying Prediction and Optimal Flood Dispatching

  • 摘要: 用系统聚类方法将历史洪水数据分成若干类型,并建立了模糊概率预测的隶属度回归方法。由此对未来洪水进行了分类概率预测,结果显示了来水过程具有一定的“类型可预报”的规律性。在此基础上讨论了一种Bayes实时优化调度规则并进行了数值模拟演算。

     

    Abstract: This paper classifies the flood into several types based on the history flood data by the hierarchical clustering method and builds a fuzzy probability prediction method that is used for real-time flood type forecasting.The result shows that the flood data is predict able to the types in some degree.Then a Bayes real-time dispatching rule is introduced into optimal flood dispatching.

     

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