Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in China
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摘要: 以平衡的GCM模型输出作为大气中CO2浓度倍增时的气候情景,采用月水量平衡模型及水资源利用综合评价模型研究我国部分流域年、月径流、蒸发的可能变化及2030年水资源供需差额变化。结果表明淮河及其以北气候变化的影响最为显着,各流域水量的增多或减少主要由汛期径流及蒸发的增减决定。在未来气候条件下,黄、淮、海三个流域水资源短缺可能进一步加剧。Abstract: Taking the output from GCMs as the climatic scenario and applying the monthly water balance model and water resources comprehensive assessment model, the impact of climate change on the annual and monthly runoff, evaporation as well as the water supply-lemand deficit were studied.The results show that the most significant influence of climate change is located on the Huaihe River and northern part to it.The increase or decrease of annual runoff is determined by the variation of runoff during flood season.In future dunatic condition, the water deficit will be enhanced in the Yellow,Huai and Hai River.
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