气候变化对新疆玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Manas River Basin

摘要: 考虑积雪和降水不均等特点,对流域进行分带处理,提出和建立了包含积雪融雪结构的水文评价模型。利用该模型求得未来不同气候变化情况下的月均流量过程,分析气候变化对玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响。结果表明:若气温升高2℃,降水减少20%,则夏季径流减少52.59%,冬季径流减少1.77%,年均径流减少46.87%。

Abstract: Considering the uneven distribution of snow runoff and precipitation,the catchment is divided into several parts.A water balance model wiich includes the snow storage and snow smelt components is proposed.Using the water balance model,the evey monthly discharge for changing climate conditions have been analyzed and tested.Analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrology and waer resources in the Manas River Basin.The results indicate:If temperature increase 2℃ and rainf all decrease 20%,then the runoff of summer the runoff of winter the annual runoff will decrease 52.59%,1.77%,46.87%,respectively.