考虑回水顶托影响的水位预报研究

基金项目: 国家“八五”重点科技攻关项目

详细信息

Study of Water Level Forecasting Model with Backwater Effect

1.
Hohai University, Nanjing 210098;
2.
Water Resources Information Centre, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100761;
3.
Hydrology Bureau of Yangtze River Conservancy Commission, Wuhan 430010

摘要: 将有回水顶托影响的河段视为多输入-单输出系统,把水位过程视为时间序列,用时间序列分析最优控制理论,建立了可考虑回水顶托影响的水位过程预报模型。提出了在棱柱形河道情况下,以时段水位涨差作变量时,模型中各参数应满足的物理性约束条件;较好地解决了长江荆江河段中受回水顶托影响的石首站的水位过程预报问题,为水位过程预报提供了一条不同于水文学途径和水力学途径的建模途径。
- 回水顶托 /
- 水位预报 /
- 时间序列分析 /
- 最优控制理论 /
- 长江 /
- 荆江河段
Abstract: Based on the time series analysis and the optimization control theory,this paper propses the water level forecasting model with backwater effect,which basically overcomes the shortages of not directly dealing with backwater effect in hydrologic way and complicated calculation in hydraulics way.For prismatic cannel the constraint condition of paramenters of the model is geven.The water level forecasting of the Jinjiang Reach of the Yangtze River with backwater effect is well solved by the model.
- backwater effect /
- water level forecasting /
- time series analysis /
- optimization control theory /
- Yangtze River /
- Jinjiang Reach

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