相空间小波网络模型及其在水文中长期预测中的应用

Wavelet Network Model of Phase Space and Its Application in Hydrologic Prediction

摘要: 简述了相空间小波网络模型原理和算法,并通过实例讨论了其在水文中的应用。研究结果初步表明,小波分析及由其发展出的小波网络模型在水文分析中是可行的、合理的。数学分析工具更为先进,将混沌重建相空间理论和小波网络模型相结合,对揭示水文动力系统复杂的非线性结构是很有效的,在水文中长期预测中具有较大优越性。

Abstract: The philosophy and algorithm of wavelet network model of chaotic phase space are introduced,then its applicable for hydrology is discussed.It is reasonable and superior to use this model in medium-and long-term hydrologic prediction.At last application of the model in the long term daily runoff prediction of the Jinsha River is shown.