Multi-Step Prediction Modeling on Riverbeds Scouring and Armoring
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摘要: 运用概率论与力学分析相结合的方法,提出了考虑非均匀沙隐暴效应的泥沙起动概率计算模式,并在已有研究成果的基础上,建立了以泥沙起动概率为核心的河床冲刷粗化多步预报模式,该模式可同时满足预报粗化层级配和冲刷深度的要求。实测资料验证表明,此模式具有较好的预报效果。Abstract: In this paper,based on the former studies and considering the propability theory and mechanical analysis method,as well as shelter-exposure effects,a pattern for calculating the probability of incipient motion in non-uniform bed material is established.And a simple model found on the pattern for multi-step predicting the process of scouring and armoring is proposed here in,it should be a useful tool for forecasting the armoring-layer size distribution and scouring depth,while uses many observed data to prove it and yields satisfactory results.
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