中国水库大坝风险管理二十年:理念发展与创新实践

Twenty years of risk management for China’s dams: conceptual development and innovative practices

  • 摘要: 中国拥有超过9.4万座水库大坝,进入21世纪以来,成为世界上溃坝率最低的国家之一。在城镇化加速与气候变化影响加剧的背景下,下游人口与资产日趋密集,极端天气事件频发,传统以“工程安全”为核心的管理模式面临严峻挑战,中国大坝安全管理坚持以系统安全理念、风险管理理念、全生命周期管理理念为指导,实现了从以“工程安全”为核心到以“风险管理”为导向的深刻转变。本文系统梳理了中国水库大坝风险管理自国际理念引入到本土化体系构建的发展历程,重点阐述了在风险识别与评估、标准制定和防控处置等关键技术方面的进展;系统介绍了以“天空地水工”一体化风险智能感知、风险评估标准体系、数字孪生“四预”平台以及现代化运行管理矩阵为代表的创新实践,共同构成了覆盖风险全链条的防控技术体系,标志着中国大坝安全管理理念实现了从“工程安全”到“风险管理”的跨越,为保障大坝长期安全与下游公共安全提供了重要支撑。

     

    Abstract: China has constructed a substantial number of reservoir dams, with a total exceeding 94 000, and has consistently maintained one of the world's lowest rates of dam failure since the 21st century. In the context of accelerating urbanization and intensifying climate change, downstream populations and assets are becoming increasingly concentrated, and extreme weather events are occurring more frequently. These challenges reveal the significant limitations of the conventional management model. Guided by the concepts of systemic safety, risk management, and whole-life-cycle management, dam safety management has undergone a profound transformation, shifting its core focus from “engineering safety” to “risk management.” This paper systematically reviews the development of dam risk management in China, tracing its evolution from the introduction of international concepts to the establishment of a localized system. It emphasizes significant technological advancements in the domains of risk identification and assessment, standard development, and prevention and response measures. Additionally, it delineates innovative practices, exemplified by the integrated intelligent risk perception system, the risk assessment standard framework, the digital twin platform, and the modern operational management matrix. The integration of these components establishes a comprehensive, end-to-end risk prevention and control technological system. This evolution signifies a paradigm shift in China’s dam safety management philosophy, transitioning from an “engineering safety” approach to a “risk management” strategy. This shift is of paramount importance in ensuring the long-term safety of dams and downstream public security.

     

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