1998年长江中游洪水系统反演及高洪水位形成原因探讨

Systematic Analyses on Abnormally High Flood Stages of Middle Yangtze River in 1998

  • 摘要: 采用描述江湖洪水运动的数学模型,对长江中游1998年洪水进行实况复演和还原计算,定量分析三口分流变化、洞庭湖湖容扩大、分蓄洪运用对荆江河段、洞庭湖区以及城陵矶至汉口河段水情的相对影响,结合定性的物理解释,深入探讨了1998洪水高洪水位的形成原因及其与江湖水情的相互作用规律,并对退田还湖和三峡水库的防洪作用进行了论证。

     

    Abstract: The flood event in the middle Yangtze River(Changjiang River)in 1998 is simulated and rebuilt,utilizing a numerical model characterizing flood routing in the river-lake system,to quantificationally analyze how the changes of three diversion rivers along Jingjinang reach,of Dongting Lake storage volume,of flood storage & diversion have influenced the flood situations in Jingjiang reach,Dongting Lake,and Chenglingji-Hankou reach.Combined with qualitative physical interpretation,the cause of abnormally high flood stages in 1998 and its interaction with flooding in the river-lake-coupled system are thoroughly discussed.In addition,the effects of restoring the farmland to natural state and of Three-Gorge Reservoir in the flood in 1998 are presented.

     

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