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南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析

康玲,  何小聪

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文章导航 > 水科学进展  > 2011 >  22(1): 44-50
康玲, 何小聪. 南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
引用本文: 康玲, 何小聪. 南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
shu
KANG Ling, HE Xiao-cong. Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
Citation: KANG Ling, HE Xiao-cong. Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
shu

南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析

  • 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北, 武汉, 430074

基金项目: “十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB04A09;2006BAB04A07)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    康玲(1966- ),女,湖北武汉人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文风险分析、水资源优化配置方面的研究.E-mail:kling@mail.hust.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P333.9

Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water

  • School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-year Plan Period(No.2006BAB04A09;No.2006BAB04A07).

  • 摘要: 受降水丰枯变化不确定性和差异性的影响,南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水的丰枯遭遇状态各不相同,给南水北调工程水资源调度运行带来风险。联合copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论,建立了南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,对南水北调中线工程调水最不利的丰枯遭遇风险概率进行了研究。利用copula函数建立了水源区和受水区年降水量联合分布函数,计算条件概率,结合贝叶斯网络进行丰枯遭遇风险分析。结果表明南水北调中线4个受水区调水风险的概率均在25%以下,并对不同情景的调水风险进行了仿真分析。
    Abstract: One of the major risk factors in managing water resources in the middle route project of South-to-North Water diversion will be due to spatial and temporal variations in precipitation.This is because the synchronous-asyn-chronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation can be different at the source area of water and at the receiving area of water.In this study,a risk analysis model is developed using a combined approach based on the copula function and Bayesian networks.The copula function is used to establish the joint probability distribution and to calculate the conditional probability among the areas of source water and receiving water.The Bayesian network is applied to analyzing the synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk.Using the risk analysis model,a risk analysis is conducted to determine the lease favorable distribution of the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation at different locations.The result shows that the risk probability is less than 25% for water transfer to four receiving areas.Our risk analysis model is simple and practicable,and can provide a new tool for conducting the multi-variate analysis of hydrological risks.
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  • 收稿日期:  2010-03-15
  • 刊出日期:  2011-01-25

南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析

  • 华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院, 湖北, 武汉, 430074
    • 基金项目:  “十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB04A09;2006BAB04A07)
    作者简介:

    康玲(1966- ),女,湖北武汉人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事水文风险分析、水资源优化配置方面的研究.E-mail:kling@mail.hust.edu.cn

  • 收稿日期: 2010-03-15
  • 刊出日期: 2011-01-25

  • 中图分类号: P333.9

摘要: 受降水丰枯变化不确定性和差异性的影响,南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降水的丰枯遭遇状态各不相同,给南水北调工程水资源调度运行带来风险。联合copula函数和贝叶斯网络理论,建立了南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区降水丰枯遭遇风险分析模型,对南水北调中线工程调水最不利的丰枯遭遇风险概率进行了研究。利用copula函数建立了水源区和受水区年降水量联合分布函数,计算条件概率,结合贝叶斯网络进行丰枯遭遇风险分析。结果表明南水北调中线4个受水区调水风险的概率均在25%以下,并对不同情景的调水风险进行了仿真分析。

English Abstract

康玲, 何小聪. 南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
引用本文: 康玲, 何小聪. 南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
shu
KANG Ling, HE Xiao-cong. Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
Citation: KANG Ling, HE Xiao-cong. Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(1): 44-50.
shu

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