面向实时监测的星地降水信息融合方法

A satellite-gauge precipitation data fusion method for real-time monitoring

  • 摘要: 面向雨水情监测预报“三道防线”的建设需求,亟须发展实时星地降水融合方法,但现有方法受限于近实时卫星信息滞时与降水样本不平衡等问题,在实际监测应用中难以落地。本文提出星地降水信息实时融合方法,通过时空深度学习模型填补滞时内缺失的卫星降水数据,在分类辨识-定量估计两阶段融合框架中引入过采样、欠采样和混合采样方法缓解降水样本不平衡特性的影响。以巢湖和太湖流域2020年4场典型强降水事件应用,结果表明:U-Net模型填补滞时内卫星降水数据的效果整体优于ConvLSTM,均方根误差低于1.75 mm/h;混合采样方法明显优于欠采样方法,有效提升了机器学习模型分辨有雨/无雨和强/一般降水的精度,分类指标F1分数超过0.88;与传统的两阶段融合方法相比,本文所提方法提升了0~0.1 mm/h和不低于25 mm/h 2个雨强区间的分辨能力,同时使Kling-Gupta效率系数平均提高0.36。本研究推动了星地降水信息融合从近实时向实时的跨越发展,可为“三道防线”中面雨量监测技术体系提供有益补充。

     

    Abstract: The development of a real-time satellite-gauge precipitation fusion approach is essential for advancing the “three lines of defense” system for rainfall monitoring and forecasting. However, existing methods are often constrained by the latency of near-real-time satellite information and the imbalance of precipitation samples, limiting their practical applicability in operational monitoring. To address these issues, this paper proposes a real-time satellite-gauge precipitation fusion method with two key features. First, a spatio-temporal deep learning model is applied to fill gaps in the satellite precipitation data during the latency period. Second, oversampling, undersampling, and hybrid sampling techniques are incorporated into a two-stage fusion framework consisting of classification and quantitative estimation to mitigate the impact of precipitation sample imbalance characteristics. The performance of the proposed method was assessed through case studies of four typical heavy precipitation events over the Chao Lake and Taihu Lake basins in 2020. The results demonstrate that the U-Net model outperforms ConvLSTM in filling the latency gaps, achieving the Root Mean Square Error (ERMS) below 1.75 mm/h. The hybrid sampling method significantly surpassed undersampling, effectively enhancing the accuracy of the machine learning model in discriminating rain/no-rain and heavy/light precipitation events, thus securing an F1-score exceeding 0.88. Compared to the traditional two-stage fusion method, the proposed approach not only enhances the discrimination ability for both light (0—0.1 mm/h) and heavy (≥25 mm/h) rainfall intensity intervals, but also increases the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (EKG) by an average of 0.36. This study advances satellite-gauge precipitation fusion from a near-real-time to a truly real-time paradigm and provides a useful supplement to the areal rainfall monitoring technology system within the “three lines of defense” framework.

     

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