长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析

陈璐; 郭生练; 张洪刚; 闫宝伟; 刘心愿

长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析

1.
武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北武汉430072;
2.
长江水利委员会水文局, 湖北武汉430010

基金项目: “十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2009BAC56B04);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079100);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(200901001)

详细信息

作者简介:
陈璐(1985- ),女,山东济南人,博士研究生,主要从事水文分析与计算方面的研究.E-mail:ch18505@126.com

中图分类号: TV122
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- 文章访问数: 214
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-06-20
- 刊出日期: 2011-05-24

Flood coincidence probability analysis for the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries

1.
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
2.
Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Kev Technologies R&D Program of China during the 11 th Five-year Plan Period (No.2009BAC56B04),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51079100) and the National Non-Profit Research Pronram of China(No.200901001).

摘要

摘要: 目前洪水遭遇研究仅限于简单的实测资料统计分析,尚缺系统有效的理论方法。基于多维Copula函数分别建立金沙江屏山站、岷江高场站、嘉陵江北碚站以及长江宜昌站的洪水发生时间和量级的联合分布。以此方法估计干支流洪水发生时间和量级的遭遇可能性及条件概率,并与实测资料的统计结果进行比较。结果表明,模型计算结果与实测相吻合,说明该方法不仅具有理论基础、而且结果合理可信,为洪水遭遇分析计算提供了一条新的途径。
- 长江上游 /
- 洪水遭遇 /
- copula函数 /
- 联合分布 /
- 条件概率
Abstract: Flood coincidence probability analysis among different regions is quite important for flood design and controt.The current flood coincidence probability analysis is based on the simple statistical analysis of observed data without theoretic methods.In this study,the daily flow data of four hydrological stations in the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries,including the Pingshan at the Jinsha River,Caochang at the Min River,Beibei at the,lialing River and Yichang at the Yangtze River,are selected for case study.Multidimensional copula functions are introduced and used to construct the joint distributions of flood occurrence dates and magnitudes.Flood coincidence and conditional probabilities among the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries thus are estimated.The calculated flood encounter values are compared to the empirical ones estimated by the observed data.The results show that the proposed method is rational and provides a new approach for flood encounter analysis.
- the upstream Yangtze River /
- flood coincidence probability /
- copula function /
- joint distribution /
- conditional probability

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参考文献(9)

[1]	中华人民共和国水利部.SL44-2006水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006:7-8.(Ministry of water resources of the people's republic of China.SL44-2006 regulation for calculating design flood of water resources and hydropower projects[S].Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2006:7-8.(in Chinese))
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[3]	PROHASKA S,LLIC A,MAJKIC B.Multiple-coincidence of flood waves on the main river and its tributaries[C]//XXIVth Conference of the Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management.IOP ConferenceSeries:Earth and Environmental Science,2008:1-8.
[4]	郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.(GUO Sheng-lian,YAN Bao-wei,XIAO Yi,et al.Multivariate hydrological analysis and estimation[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28 (3):1-7.(in Chinese))
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文章访问数: 214
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长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析

作者简介: 陈璐(1985- ),女,山东济南人,博士研究生,主要从事水文分析与计算方面的研究.E-mail:ch18505@126.com

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出版历程

Flood coincidence probability analysis for the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
陈璐(1985- ),女,山东济南人,博士研究生,主要从事水文分析与计算方面的研究.E-mail:ch18505@126.com