气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征

左德鹏; 徐宗学; 李景玉; 刘兆飞

气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征

1.
北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室北京 100875;
2.
国土资源部中国土地勘测规划院北京 100035;
3.
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所北京 100101

基金项目: 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项资助项目(2009ZX07212-002-003);科技部中瑞合作资助项目(2009DFA22980)

详细信息

作者简介:
左德鹏(1985- ),男,宁夏石嘴山人,博士研究生,主要从事生态水文方面研究.E-mail:zuodepeng@mail.bnu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
徐宗学,E-mail:zxxu@bnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: S161.4;P467
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-08-15
- 修回日期: 2011-07-08
- 刊出日期: 2011-07-24

Spatiotemporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in the Weihe River basin under future climate change

1.
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University;Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;
2.
China Institute of Land Surveying and Planning, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China;
3.
Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

Funds: The study is financially supported by the National Wtiter Pollution Control and Management S&T Specific Projects of China(No.20097ZX07212-002-003)

摘要

摘要: 根据渭河流域20个气象站1959~2008年逐日气象资料,以FAO Penman-Monteith法计算的各站逐日潜在蒸散量作为标准值,对基于气温的Hargreaves法进行参数校正以使其适用于渭河流域.应用统计降尺度模型SDSM将HadCM3输出数据降尺度到各站点,生成A2,B2两种情景下各站未来日最高、最低气温数据,将其输入校正参数后的Hargreaves模型,从而分析未来气候变化情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量以及最高、最低气温的时空变化趋势.结果表明:各站校正后Hargreaves法可用于估算未来情景下渭河流域潜在蒸散量;两种情景下流域日最高、最低气温和年潜在蒸散量较基准期均呈现明显上升趋势,且B2情景低于A2情景下增幅;各区域年潜在蒸散变化量在未来3个时期均呈现明显递增趋势,增幅较大地区主要分布在渭河南岸,而渭河北岸大部分变幅较小.
- 潜在蒸散量 /
- 气候变化 /
- 大气环流模式 /
- 渭河
Abstract: The parameters in the temperature-based Hargreaves method for the estimation of potential evapotranspiration(ET_P)are calibrated by the FAO Penma-Monteith method and daily data during the period 1959-2008 at 20 meteorological stations in the Weihe River basin.To study the impact of(limate(hangs on potential evapotranspiration, the projected daily maximum and minimum air temperature(T_max/T_min)of HadCM3 CCM under A2 and B2 scenarios are first downscaled onto local meteorological stations using the statistical downscaling model(SDSM).Using the calibrated Hargreaves method,the future ET_P,T_max and T_min time series under A2 and B2 scenarios can then be calculated.The spatiotemporal characteristics of these series are analyzed.Results show that the calibrated Hargreaves method reproduces well the observed potential evapotranspiration at each of the 20 meteorological stations;upward trends in daily T_max and T_min and annual ET_P could be significant compared to that of the baseline period 1961-1990 under both scenarios;the increase in meteorological variables would be greater under A2 than B2;over different regions of the Wei River basin,the annual ET_P could be gradually increasing for the three future periods,the 2010-2039,the 2040-2069 and the 2070-2099;and the greatest increase of ET_P could be expected in the south bank of the basin, while the lowest increase might be found in the north bank.
- potential evapotranspiration /
- climate change /
- general cireulation model /
- Weihe River