张俊娥, 陆垂裕, 秦大庸, 刘淼. 基于分布式水文模型的区域“四水”转化[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(5): 595-604.
引用本文: 张俊娥, 陆垂裕, 秦大庸, 刘淼. 基于分布式水文模型的区域“四水”转化[J]. 水科学进展, 2011, 22(5): 595-604.
ZHANG Jun-e, LU Chui-yu, QIN Da-yong, LIU Miao. Regional “four-water” transformation based on distributed hydrological model[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(5): 595-604.
Citation: ZHANG Jun-e, LU Chui-yu, QIN Da-yong, LIU Miao. Regional “four-water” transformation based on distributed hydrological model[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(5): 595-604.

基于分布式水文模型的区域“四水”转化

Regional “four-water” transformation based on distributed hydrological model

  • 摘要: 根据天津市现状,利用中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所近期针对强人类活动地区,尤其是复杂的农田系统开发的分布式水文模型——MODCYCLE模型,构建了天津市MODCYCLE模型,并对天津市"四水"转化特征进行了定量分析。结果表明:天津市"四水"转化过程受社会侧支水循环的影响较大,有地表产流少、土壤补给大消耗量大、地下水超采以及入境水和外调水利用率高等特点。当地地表水已不能满足区域用水需求,现状条件下通过消耗上游来水量和外调水量保证区域用水,未来虽然还有南水北调工程补水,但仍需要执行严格的水资源管理制度才能逐步减少地下水超采,增加入海水量。

     

    Abstract: Analysis of "four-water" transformation lays the foundation of the study of water resources problems such as water resources assessment and water cycle changes. In this study, a modified version of the MODCYCLE distributed hydrological model is established in accordance with the local specifications of Tianjin, and then used to analyze the regularity of "four-water" transformation in Tianjin. The original MODCYCLE model was developed by the Department of Water Resources in China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, and is able to account for the influence of intense human activity, especially when dealing with complex agricultural systems. The analysis result shows that the process of "four-water" transformation in Tianjin is largely influenced by the artificial collateral water cycle, which can be characterized as the reduction in surface runoff, the increase in soil water content, the overexploitation of groundwater, as well as the efficient use of inflow water and transferred water. The quantity of surface water in Tianjin could hardly meet the local demand for water. Although, the current shortfall in water provision is resolved by using upstream inflow and transferred water from other regions, and the issue of future water shortages could be ensured by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. However, a strict water resources management system should be implemented to gradually reduce the groundwater consumption and to increase the freshwater discharge into the sea.

     

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