黄河上游地区气候变化及其对黄河水资源的影响
Climatic Changes over the Upper Yellow River and Its Effects on Water Resources
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摘要: 通过对1961年以来黄河上游地区气候变化的分析,发现黄河源区进入80年代中后期以后,年平均气温上升趋势非常明显,特别是1998年的年平均气温竟达到-2.1℃,是40年来年平均气温最高的一年;进入90年代,春季和夏季温度急剧回升.黄河上游地区年平均降水量及秋季降水量无明显的变化趋势,且其年际间的波动趋于缓和;冬季(12~2月)和春季(3~5月)降水量的变化趋势呈现出逐年增多的趋势;夏季(6~8月)降水量变化趋势却表现出显著的减少趋势.同时,分析了38年黄河上游径流量及其与流域降水、气温的关系,着重分析了干旱气候对黄河水资源的影响.结果表明,黄河上游地区水资源呈减少趋势,其减少趋势进入90年代后尤为明显.这一变化趋势与黄河上游地区夏季降水量变化趋势有着一致性,说明汛期降水量的减少是黄河上游流量减少的最直接的气候因子.Abstract: The climatic variations since 1961 over the upper Yellow River were analyzed in this paper.It indicated that the tendency of annual air temperature rising was very obvious from the med and late 1980s,especially the annual air temperature in 1998.From 1990s,the spring and summer temperature were rapidly increased.The precipitation dit not have significant variation tendency in the annual and autumn,tended to increas in the winter and spring,and to decrease in the summer.The effects of the annual flow,rainfall,air temperature,and droughty climate on the water resources were andyzed.The results showed that the water resoures were decreased,and the reductive tendency was very obvious since the late 1990s.This tendency consisted with that of the summer precipitation.It indicated that the reductive precipitation during flood season was the dominant factor of climate for reducing flow of the upper Yellow River.