长江中下游夏季特大旱涝预测研究

A Study on the Prediction of Extraordinary Drought and Flood Events over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River

摘要: 利用1951～1995年的资料,分析了长江中下游梅雨期(6～7月)和夏季(6～8月)旱涝的一般特征.在此基础上着重研究了大涝(旱)和特大涝(旱)年前期大气环流的各种因子的特征,进而确定可供预测旱涝趋势的若干环流因子.

Abstract: This paper analyzes the drought and flood events during Meiyu and summer over the middle and lower Yangtze River.Based on theseanalyses,we study the atmospheric circulation in earlier stage of the drought and flood,and identify predictable the factors lastly.A conception modelis developed,which is of great importanceto predict the extraordinary drought andflood events.