When Will Fresh Water Use in China Reach the Climax?
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摘要: 从中国实际用水增长业已放慢的趋势、已经开始启动的供水价格的大幅上升趋势和水价与用水的关系、经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变(高耗水行业已经接近顶峰)和用水与产业结构的关系、日益严格的环境立法和执法对用水的影响、中国水资源本身的限制等5个方面,分析中国的用水变化趋势,提出中国的农业用水量、工业用水量和总用水量目前均已接近顶峰,可望在10年内达到顶峰,最大用水量不大可能超过6500×108m3。Abstract: China is a country of serious water shortage.Future water demand forecast is very important for policies-and-decision-makers to design water supply and demand balance measures and to direct indurtrial location.How about the future trends of water use in China? All the previous studies showed that the water use will continuc to increase until year 2030 or even later to 2080 and the highest water demand reach 700～900 billion cubic meters which is 150～350 billion cubic meters more than recent water use.If so,China will face more serious water short age problem.This paper put for ward a completely different opinion on the future water use trends of China.The water use(meaning fresh water with drawhere) will reach the maxiouum in 10 years because of the following 5 reasons.The first,the water use increase rate in China does already slow down(about 1% a year).The second,China will lift water supply price which is much lower than cost at present and the violently rising water supply price will obstruct the increase of water use.The third,the industrial structural upgrade especially the stagnation and sliding down of heavy industries such as iron and steel industry will cut down industrial water demand.The fourth,Stricter environmental protection regulations and stricter execution of those regulations will oppress the fresh water demand.The fifth,in South China we don't have more arable land to be irrigated while in North China we don't have more fresh water resource to be wihdrawn.
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Key words:
- water use /
- water use climax /
- China /
- water use forecast
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