考虑遥相关因子的月降水数据偏差校正方法

Study on the bias correction method for monthly precipitation data considering teleconnection factors

  • 摘要: 多源降水数据校正对于缺资料地区水文规律的分析及模拟至关重要,当前校正方法对气候要素考虑不足。为此,基于ERA5、ERA5-Land、MSWEP-V2和PERSIANN-CDR多源降水数据集与遥相关因子集,结合XGBoost-SHAP模型进行特征筛选与成因分析,构建基于BiLSTM的降水数据偏差校正模型,采用贝叶斯优化(BO)策略寻求模型的最优超参数组合,以进一步提高校正精度。选取汉江上游为研究对象,对多源降水数据进行偏差校正。结果表明:①大气环流类因子是汉江上游降水形成的主要影响因素,北半球副高脊线位置指数的影响最大;②与传统的统计类方法相比,BO-BiLSTM略逊色于表现最优的参数转换法,但可以更加灵活地考虑多个因子的影响;③考虑遥相关因子后,多源降水数据校正的测试期纳什效率系数平均提升了5.4%,均方误差平均降低了24.6%,Kling-Gupta效率系数平均提升了10.5%。研究成果可为数据匮乏地区月降水的高精度估算与延长提供切实可行的技术方案。

     

    Abstract: The correction of multi-source precipitation data is critical for analyzing and modeling hydrological patterns in data-scarce regions. However, existing correction methods often overlook the influence of climatic factors. To address this, a precipitation bias correction model was developed based on BiLSTM, integrating multi-source precipitation datasets (ERA5, ERA5-Land, MSWEP-V2, and PERSIANN-CDR) with teleconnection factors. The XGBoost-SHAP model was employed for feature selection and causality analysis, while a Bayesian Optimization (BO) strategy was applied to identify the optimal combination of model hyperparameters to further enhance correction accuracy. Using the Upper Hanjiang River basin as the study area, multi-source precipitation data bias correction was conducted. The results indicate: ①Atmospheric circulation factors are the primary influences on precipitation formation in the Upper Hanjiang River basin, with the position index of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High Ridge having the most significant impact. ②Compared with traditional statistical methods, the BO-BiLSTM model, while slightly less effective than the optimal parameter transformation method, provides greater flexibility in incorporating multiple influencing factors. ③After considering teleconnection factors, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of the corrected multi-source precipitation data during the test period improved by an average of 5.4%, the mean squared error decreased by 24.6% on average, and the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient increased by 10.5% on average. These findings offer a practical technical solution for high-precision monthly precipitation estimation and extension in data-scarce regions.

     

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