Estimation of usable water resources and carrying capacity in Northwest China
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摘要: 界定了水资源可利用量和径流口径生态需水的概念。对西北地区的径流口径生态需水和水资源可利用量进行估算。西北地区水资源总量为1638 5×108m3,但需净出境水量为411 9×108m3,实有水资源总量为1226 6×108m3,径流口径生态需水量为454 4×108m3,除去保留给生态的生态需水、偏远封闭流域难以利用的水量,人类可以消耗利用的可利用量有742×108m3,其中黄河流域可利用量为187×108m3,西北内流区当地可利用量为555×108m3。建立了水资源承载能力优化计算模型,估算西北地区的水资源承载能力,并建议用水资源承载能力图谱表示水资源承载能力。在人均GDP每10年翻一番、水资源利用效率每年提高7%的条件下,西北地区水资源承载能力2010年为11310万人,2020年为12019万人,2030年为12733万人。Abstract: On the base of redefining usable water resources and ecological water demand the water resources carrying capacity of Northwest China is estimated on the scale of basins.The ecological water demand and water rights was neglected in the former definition of usable water resources.This paper defines usable water resources for human being as:One part of total available water resources that can be consumed by human living and economic production under conditions of certain techno-economic level,certain standards of ecological protection and water right limitation.Taking the viewpoint of runoff resources,ecological water demand means one part of total available water resources that is needed to maintain the integrity of ecosystem.The total available water resources is balanced by human usable water resources,ecological water requirement and water resources not usable by human being and ecosystem we want to protect.The total renewable water resources of Northwset China (including internal closed basins and Yellow River basin within Shaanxi,Ningxia,Gansu,Qinghai,Xinjiang and the westem part of Inner Mongoulia) is 1 638 1 5×108 m3,while the net amount that flow into other countries is 411.9×108 m3,the quantity if ecological water requirement is 454.4×108 m3,and the quantity of usable water resources is 742×108 m3.By using an optimizing model the water carrying capacity of Northwest China is appraised:under the conditions that per capita GDP double every 10 years and water use efficiency rise at the rats of 7% annually,water resources of Northwest China can support population of 12.7 million persons in year 2030.
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