基于时空聚类的上海内涝积水时空分布规律

Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of urban waterlogging in Shanghai based on spatiotemporal clustering analysis

  • 摘要: 极端暴雨频发和快速城市化背景下,内涝积水是当前城市发展面临的重要挑战。研究基于2013—2023年上海市积水数据,采用K-means聚类和概率密度分析方法,探讨了内涝积水的季节性、空间分布及典型暴雨积水过程特征。结果表明:①内涝积水季节性显著,夏季高发,与台风暴雨同期性强;②道路积水是最主要的积水类型,空间异质性突出,中心城区为高频发生区,主要受限于排水系统的局限性和调蓄空间不足;③K-means聚类识别的3类积水事件中,高风险区域集中在嘉定与市区的交界处,水深较大;④典型暴雨积水过程呈现“快积快消”特征,且持续时间小于等于10 h,建议风险预警时间控制在40 min以内。研究成果可为提升城市内涝治理的精细化管理和应急响应能力提供关键支撑。

     

    Abstract: Under the combined influence of frequent rainstorm events and rapid urbanization, urban waterlogging has emerged as a critical challenge in contemporary urban development. Based on Shanghai waterlogging data from 2013 to 2023, this study investigates the seasonal variations, spatial distribution, and characteristics of typical rainstorm-induced waterlogging utilizing K-means clustering and probability density analysis. Results indicate significant seasonality, with peak occurrence in summer strongly synchronized with typhoon-related rainstorms. Road inundation constitutes the primary waterlogging type, exhibiting prominent spatial heterogeneity; notably, the central urban areas experience frequent inundation primarily due to limited drainage capacities and insufficient water retention spaces. Among the three waterlogging categories identified via K-means clustering, high-risk zones with deeper water depths are concentrated at the interface between Jiading Distract and central urban areas. Typical storm-related inundation events are characterized by rapid accumulation and recession ("fast in and fast out"), with durations typically not exceeding 10 hours. It is recommended that the risk early-warning lead time be controlled within 40 minutes. These findings provide critical insights to support the refinement of urban waterlogging management and enhance emergency response capabilities.

     

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