青藏高原海拔5 000 m以下雪面雨时空变化

Spatiotemporal variations in rain-on-snow below an elevation of 5000 m on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

  • 摘要: 雪面雨(Rain-on-snow)对青藏高原生态水文过程影响显著,研究其时空变化对该地区水资源管理至关重要。本文采用1978—2017年69个站点逐日雪深和气象数据,系统分析了青藏高原海拔5000 m以下雪面雨时空变化及其驱动机制。结果表明:该地区雪面雨日主要集中在10月、次年3—5月,主要分布在东部、中部和东南部;高强度雪面雨(≥ 50 mm/d)多出现在3月和10月的东南部、4月和5月的中部以及东北部的祁连山。受降雨日数增加的影响,该地区夏季雪面雨日数以1.2 d/(10 a)的速率显著(P<0.01)减少,春季微弱增多;受降雨量增加的影响,该地区夏季雪面雨强度略微减小,春季以6 mm/(d·10a)的速率显著(P<0.05)增大。未来全球持续变暖可能加剧该地区冬末春初的雪面雨洪水风险。

     

    Abstract: Rain-on-snow (ROS) significantly impacts ecohydrological processes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the study of the spatiotemporal variations in ROS is crucial for water resource management in the region. In this work, the spatiotemporal variations in ROS and its driving mechanism on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1978 to 2017 were systematically analysed via daily snow depth and meteorological data from 69 stations. The results showed that ROS days in the region are mainly concentrated in October and from March to May of the following year and are distributed mainly in the eastern, central and southeastern regions. High-intensity ROS (≥50 mm/d) mostly occurred in the southeastern region in March and October and in the central region and Qilian Mountain in the northeastern part of the region in April and May. Owing to the increase in the number of rainfall days, the number of ROS days decreased significantly (P<0.01) in summer at a rate of 1.2 d/(10a) and increased slightly in spring. Moreover, influenced by the increase in the amount of rainfall, the ROS intensity decreased slightly in summer and increased significantly (P<0.05) in spring at a rate of 6 mm/(d·10a). Continued global warming in the future could exacerbate the risk of ROS-induced flooding in the region in late winter and early spring.

     

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