基于物理机制耦合深度学习的黄河干流流量演进模拟

Simulation of river flow evolution in the Yellow River main stream based on the coupling of physical mechanisms and deep learning

  • 摘要: 河道流量演进模拟是黄河流域水量统一调度的关键环节,亟需提出一种高精度、低延时、考虑人工侧支取退水过程的黄河干流流量演进模拟模型,以满足从水源到用户的精准精细调度需求。在解析黄河不平衡水量空间分布规律的基础上,通过卷积神经网络-长短期记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)深度学习算法构建黄河干流各河段流量演进模型,并采用重组复合形演化算法(SCE-UA)进行全局优化调参,同时将龙羊峡水库“蓄丰补枯”的物理机制嵌入至CNN-LSTM模型中进行串联耦合模拟。研究结果表明:黄河干流不平衡水量在空间上表现为中游河段>下游河段>上游河段的整体趋势性规律,但相邻子区间的单位河段长度不平衡水量并不存在显著关联性;水文学方法、CNN-LSTM模型(分段率定)、CNN-LSTM模型(全局率定)、串联耦合模拟的综合评价指标(ER-R-M)均值分别为0.627、0.613、0.774、0.811,黄河上游和下游河段的模拟精度要优于中游河段;基于物理机制引导深度神经网络搭建的方式能够有效约束解集空间,CNN-LSTM模型(全局率定)相较于水文学方法精度提升29.3%。研究结果对黄河水量统一调度具有一定的实践应用价值。

     

    Abstract: Evolution of river flow is vital for water regulation in the Yellow River basin. There is an urgent need for a high-precision, low-latency simulation model that considers an artificial lateral water cycle to meet the demand for accurate and refined water regulation from water sources to end-users. Based on the analysis of unbalanced water volume in the Yellow River's main stream, this study used the CNN-LSTM algorithm to build flow evolution models. The SCE-UA algorithm was used to tune the parameters. The “store-wet-release-dry” mechanism of the Longyangxia Reservoir was embedded in the globally-calibrated CNN-LSTM model for simulation. Model comparison indicated the following: ① Unbalanced water volume in the main stream is in the order of middle > lower > upper reaches, with no significant sub-interval correlation. ② The comprehensive evaluation indicators (ER-R-M) mean values of the hydrological method, CNN-LSTM (local optimization), CNN-LSTM (global optimization), and the coupled simulation were 0.627, 0.613, 0.774, and 0.811 respectively. The upper and lower reaches had higher accuracy than the middle reaches. ③ Building a deep neural network guided by physical simulation can effectively limit the solution space, with 29.3% higher accuracy than the hydrological method, which has practical value for water regulation in the Yellow River.

     

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