流域水资源系统复杂网络特征及韧性驱动机理

Complex network characteristics and resilience-driving mechanisms of water resource systems in river basin

  • 摘要: 面向水旱灾害风险管控的需求,为揭示水资源系统复杂网络特征及韧性驱动机理,本文基于水资源系统复杂网络,构建“气象-水文-社会经济-生态-工程”五维水资源系统韧性评价指标体系。以汾河流域为研究对象,通过建立子系统因果关系网络厘清要素逻辑关联,综合运用耦合度模型与地理探测器方法,定量解析系统间交互作用强度及韧性驱动机理。研究结果表明:①水资源系统具有明显的复杂网络特征,各子系统间都存在较高强度的耦合关系,其中气象子系统和水文子系统之间的耦合度最高(0.933);②2010—2022年,年降水量、地表水资源量、城镇化水平、森林覆盖率、人均供水量等因素是汾河流域水资源系统韧性的主导驱动力,其中年降水量驱动力最强(0.812);③不同驱动因素交互作用的影响力均大于单因素单独作用时的影响力,各影响因素之间交互作用日趋复杂,多因素共同作用趋势凸显。探索水资源系统复杂网络特征和揭示水资源系统韧性的驱动机理,对于减少灾害风险、优化水资源配置时空格局、支撑流域高质量发展具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: This study addresses the demand for risk management of flood and drought disasters and reveals the complex network characteristics and resilience-driving mechanisms in water resource systems. Specifically, a five-dimensional, i.e., 'meteorology-hydrology-socioeconomic-ecology-engineering' water resource system resilience evaluation index is developed, which is applied to the Fenhe River basin, acting as the research object. Furthermore, this work quantitatively analyzes the interaction intensity between systems and their resilience-driving mechanisms by establishing a causality network of subsystems to clarify the logical relationships among elements and comprehensively employing the coupling degree model and the geographical detector method. The research findings are: ① The water resource system exhibits distinct complex network characteristics, with high-intensity coupling relationships among its subsystems. Among them, the coupling degree between meteorological subsystem and hydrological subsystem is the highest (0.933). ② In the series of 2010—2022, annual precipitation, surface water resources, urbanization level, forest cover and per capita water supply were the dominant drivers of water resource systems resilience in the Fenhe River basin. Among them, the annual precipitation driver is the strongest (0.812). ③ The interactive effects among different driving factors are consistently more significant than the individual effects of single factors. Notably, the interactions among various influencing factors have become increasingly complex, with multifactorial synergies becoming more pronounced. Exploring the complex network characteristics of water resource systems and revealing the resilience-driving mechanisms in water resource systems are of great significance for reducing disaster risk, optimizing the spatial and temporal pattern of water resources allocation and supporting the high development quality of the basin.

     

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