基于深度学习集合预报的水库闸门防洪优化调度

Optimization of gate operation for reservoir flood control based on deep learning ensemble forecasting

  • 摘要: 为了减轻洪水灾害的损失,有必要开展水库防洪预报调度的研究。针对目前水库防洪调度研究较少考虑闸门实际运行及调度方案可执行性的问题,提出以泄放闸门状态与状态持续时长为决策变量的精细化防洪优化调度模型,并且考虑入库流量预报不确定性的影响,将集合了Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)、Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)与Transformer深度学习模型的不确定性集合预报作为调度模型输入,在浙江省椒江流域开展实例研究。结果表明:集合预报精度较单一模型提高了4.6%,其不确定性预报结果可用于水库调度;精细化防洪优化调度相比常规调度优势明显,能降低平均最高坝前水位0.43 m,降低下游控制断面平均洪峰流量32.9 m3/s,方案效果受入库流量不确定性的影响更小,方案可执行性高,对水库防洪调度决策有重要的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Research is needed for improving reservoir flood forecasting and operation to reduce flood-induced losses. Current reservoir flood control practices lack consideration of actual gate operations and dispatch scheme feasibility. This study proposes a refined flood operation optimization model, which takes into account inflow forecast uncertainties by utilizing ensemble forecasts derived from a combination of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Transformer deep learning models. Gate discharge states and their durations are taken as decision variables. A case study was conducted in the Jiaojiang River basin, Zhejiang Province. Results indicate that the ensemble forecasts are improved by 4.6% in accuracy compared to single model forecasts, and the forecast uncertainty is reliable for reservoir operation. The refined flood operation optimization model shows significant advantages over conventional methods, reducing the average maximum water level at the dam by 0.43 m and the average flood peak flow at downstream control section by 32.9 m3/s. The effectiveness of the optimized solution is less affected by inflow uncertainties. Overall, the proposed refined model is demonstrated to have the potential to provide valuable information to support reservoir flood control decision-making.

     

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