青藏高原水汽来源及其对降水变化的贡献

Water vapor sources and their contributions to precipitation change in the Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 1980年以来,青藏高原降水呈现北增南减的变化趋势,增加了水资源系统的复杂性和不确定性。为探讨其中原因,在已有降水再循环率计算方法的基础上,提出水汽输送追踪与不同水汽源区贡献率的估算新方法,量化不同水汽源区对青藏高原降水及其降水变化的贡献。研究表明:1980—2020年印度季风控制的西南源区、西风带控制的西部源区、本地再循环源区以及东亚季风控制的东南源区对青藏高原降水的水汽贡献率分别为38.5%、31.6%、24.6%和0.2%;西南源区为高原整体降水的增加贡献了42.9%的水汽,并且是高原西南部降水增加的主要水汽贡献者;本地再循环源区为高原整体降水的增加贡献了36.2%的水汽,是高原中部和北部降水增量的主要水汽贡献者;西部源区仅为高原整体降水的增加贡献了10.6%的水汽,并且其对高原西北部降水的水汽贡献量呈增加趋势,而对东部和南部降水的水汽贡献量有所减少。

     

    Abstract: In recent decades, precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)increased in the north and decreased in the south, leading to greater complexity and uncertainty of the water resources system. To improve our knowledge about those changes, on the basis of an existing method for calculating precipitation recycle rate, a new method for tracking water vapor transport and estimating relative contribution rates of different water vapor sources is proposed to quantify the contribution of different water vapor sources to the precipitation and its changes in the TP. The study shows that the southwestern source area controlled by the Indian monsoon, the western source area by the westerly, the local source area by recycled water vapor, and the southeastern source area by the East Asian monsoon contributed 38.5%, 31.6%, 24.6%, and 0.2%, respectively, of the water vapor to the precipitation in the TP during 1980—2020. The southwestern source region dominated the increase in precipitation in the southwestern TP, contributing 42.9% of the water vapor to the overall increase in precipitation in the TP. Meanwhile, the local recycle source area is the main water vapor contributor to the precipitation increment in the central and northern part of the TP, contributing 36.2% of the water vapor to the overall increase in precipitation in the TP. The western source area contributed 10.6% of the water vapor to the overall increase in precipitation on the TP, with increasing contribution to the northwestern part of the TP and decreasing contribution to the eastern and southern parts.

     

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