WRF/Grid-XAJ双向耦合系统构建及其暴雨洪水模拟应用

Building of WRF/Grid-XAJ two-way coupling system and its application in rainstorm and flood simulation

  • 摘要: 为解决陆气双向耦合中气象与水文模型不易匹配的问题,基于质量守恒原理,以土壤含水量为纽带,构建高效的WRF/Grid-XAJ双向耦合(双耦)系统。通过屯溪流域2场洪水事件分析发现:模型权重参数可定量评估水文-气象模型耦合的相容性;降水同化后,双耦系统的降水峰值模拟精度稍好于WRF模型(误差在±5%内);双耦较单向耦合(单耦)系统能更准确地反映土壤含水量;降水同化前,双耦和单耦系统低估了洪水过程;同化后两者的模拟结果提升且与Grid-XAJ模型接近(三者纳什效率系数ENS>0.85),其中双耦系统洪峰模拟效果最好(误差在±11%内),说明WRF/Grid-XAJ双耦系统在暴雨洪水模拟预报方面有较好的应用潜力,为水文-气象模型双向反馈建模提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract: To address compatibility issues between meteorological and hydrological models in two-way land-atmosphere coupling, a highly efficient WRF/Grid-XAJ two-way coupling system was constructed based on the principle of mass conservation using soil moisture as a linkage. Analysis of two flood events in the Tunxi catchment revealed the following: the model weight parameter quantitatively assessed the compatibility of hydro-meteorological model coupling; after precipitation assimilation, the two-way coupling system slightly outperformed the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model in peak precipitation accuracy (error is within ±5%); the two-way coupling system more accurately reflected soil moisture; both the two- and one-way coupling systems underestimated the hydrographs before precipitation assimilation; after assimilation, their simulation results improved and closely matched those of the Grid-XAJ model (all Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients ENS > 0.85), with the two-way coupling system showing the best peak flood simulation results (error is within ±11%). This demonstrates that the WRF/Grid-XAJ two-way coupling system has the potential to promote the simulation and forecasting of rainstorms and floods, offering a new perspective for two-way feedback modeling between hydrological and meteorological models.

     

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