可变TOPSIS水安全韧性三支决策方法及应用

Variable TOPSIS three-way decision approach for water security resilience and its application

  • 摘要: 为克服当前水安全评价中常用的TOPSIS方法适用于排序但决策指导意义相对较弱的不足, 借助可变模糊集中的相对隶属度方法改进其数据标准化过程, 进而计算贴近度用于估计三支决策中的条件概率, 基于综合阈值生成三支决策规则; 设置不同的风险规避系数(σ), 动态细化三支决策粒度, 实现等级评判和调控决策。基于韧性理念, 从抵抗性、恢复性和适应性3个方面构建水安全评价指标体系, 并以京津冀地区为例开展实证研究。结果表明: 2006—2020年, 京津冀三地的水安全水平稳中有升, 空间分异特征显著; 北京和天津年际变化较小, 河北2015年以来则有显著提升; 当前北京和天津水安全的主要韧性调控方向为抵抗性, 而河北则需要进一步加强适应性。

     

    Abstract: To overcome the shortcomings of the TOPSIS method commonly used in water security assessment, which is suitable for ranking but relatively weak in decision-making guidance, this study improve its data standardization by using the relative membership degree method in variable fuzzy sets. Correspondongly the closeness degree is calculated to estimate the conditional probability in three-way decision process and generates decision rules based on the comprehensive thresholds. By setting different risk aversion coefficients σ, the granularity of three-way decision is dynamically refinedt to achieve level assessment and regulatory decision-making. Guided by the concept of resilience, a water security assessment indicator system is constructed from three aspects: resistance, resilience, and adaptability, and a case study is conducted in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. The results show that from 2006 to 2020, the water security level in the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has steadily increased with significant spatial differentiation. Beijing and Tianjin show minimal interannual variation, while Hebei has shown significant improvement since 2015. The main resilience regulation direction for water security in Beijing and Tianjin is resistance, while Hebei needs to further enhance adaptability.

     

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