基于知识图谱的城市洪涝灾害链推演及时空特性解析

Derivation and transmission analysis of urban flood disaster chain based on knowledge graph

  • 摘要: 城市洪涝灾害具有链式传播特性, 解析城市洪涝灾害链的传递规律和时空演变特征对于阻断灾害链具有重要意义。本研究以郑州“7·20”特大暴雨洪涝灾害中地铁5号线被淹和京广快速路隧道被淹2个事件为案例, 构建知识图谱揭示灾害链传递规律。通过复盘灾害链的演变过程, 从中识别灾害链中的诱发点、引爆点、扩散点以及放大点, 并着重分析致灾机理以及灾害链的时空特性, 以灾害曲线形式直观展示不同灾害链的影响程度。郑州“7·20”洪涝灾害典型案例解析表明, 两事件存在多个灾害链阻断时机, 在救灾过程中应综合考虑灾前、灾中因素的影响, 果断采取断链措施, 并且要充分发挥应急措施的时效性, 及时阻断引爆点和扩散点, 降低洪涝灾害损失。该方法能够应用于链式灾害的复盘, 指导分析具体事件的致灾机理和救灾切入点。

     

    Abstract: Urban flood disasters exhibit chain-like propagation characteristics, and analyzing the transmission laws and spatiotemporal evolution features of urban flood disaster chains is of significant importance for disrupting the disaster chain. This study aims to use two events from the "7·20" unprecedented heavy rain and flood disaster in Zhengzhou—the flooding of metro line 5 and the flooding of the Beijing-Guangzhou expressway tunnel—as case studies. A knowledge graph was constructed to reveal the transmission laws of the disaster chain. By reviewing the evolution process of the disaster chain, triggering points, detonation points, diffusion points, and amplification points within the disaster chain were identified. The study focused on analyzing the disaster-causing mechanisms and spatiotemporal characteristics of the disaster chain, presenting the impact levels of different disaster chains in the form of disaster curves. Analysis of typical cases of the "7·20" flood disaster in Zhengzhou indicates that there were several chances to break the disaster chains in both events. In the disaster relief process, the influence of pre-disaster and in-disaster factors should be comprehensively considered, and decisive measures should be taken to break the chain. It is crucial to fully leverage the timeliness of emergency measures, promptly block detonation and diffusion points, and reduce losses from flood disasters. This method can be applied to the retrospective analysis of chain-like disasters, guiding the analysis of the disaster-causing mechanisms and entry points for disaster relief in specific events.

     

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