全球气象预报驱动流域水文预报研究进展与展望

Research progresses and prospects of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts

  • 摘要: 全球气象模型及新兴人工智能模型为流域水文预报提供了日、次季节、季节等不同时间尺度的海量气象预报数据。与此同时, 基于气象预报开展水文预报, 涉及到数据获取、模型构建、评估检验等技术问题。本文以全球气象预报相关的研究计划为切入点, 调研现有的1 d至2周小时尺度中短期天气预报、1~60 d次季节尺度气象预报、1~12个月季节尺度气象预报以及新兴的人工智能气象预报; 梳理气象预报驱动下流域水文预报模型方法, 阐述气象预报订正、水文模型设置和预报评估检验等技术环节。基于全球气象预报生成实时和回顾性流域水文预报, 定量检验不同预见期下预报精度以评估相关模型方法的预报性能, 为水利工程预报-调度实践应用打下坚实的基础。

     

    Abstract: Global climate models and emerging artificial intelligence models generate big climate forecasts data for catchment hydrological forecasting at daily, sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales. The utilization of global climate forecasts to drive catchment hydrological models are confronted with the technical issues of climate forecast data retrieval, hydrological forecasting model set-up and verification of hydro-climatic forecasts. Starting with international collaborative research projects on global climate forecasting, this paper conducts a survey of short-term weather forecasts for the next 1 day to 2 weeks, sub-seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 60 days, seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 12 months and artificial intelligence-based climate forecasts. Furthermore, the processes of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts are illustrated by detailing the technical aspects on the calibration of climate forecasts, the setting-up of hydrological models and the verification of predictive performance. By generating real-time and retrospective catchment hydrological forecasts from global climate forecasts, the efficacy of forecasting models can be quantitatively examined by verifying forecast skill at different lead times, laying a solid basis for practical forecasts-based operations of hydraulic infrastructure.

     

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