关于中国水达峰几个问题的讨论

Discussion on issues related to water peaking in China

  • 摘要: 用水演变态势与需求峰值事关经济社会发展、生态环境保护大局, 直接影响国家水网规划布局和重大水利工程建设。本文在水达峰内涵解析的基础上, 总结了水达峰的自然社会特征和内涵, 阐明了水达峰与需水、用水、缺水之间的关系, 深入分析了中国统计用水量出现拐点的现象以及造成这种现象的6种可能原因, 指出目前尚不能得出中国用水需求已达峰的结论。通过与国际上发达国家水达峰时人均GDP、产业结构、城镇化率等主要指标对比分析, 认为中国现阶段也不具备水达峰的经济社会基础。最后指出, 目前中国水资源保障安全的压力仍然较大, 未来用水演变态势存在一定的不确定性, 中国用水何时达峰、达峰水量是多少等结论需要进一步深入研究。需要做好国家水网工程的顶层设计, 提升不同尺度的水资源优化配置能力, 为国家高质量发展提供水资源保障。

     

    Abstract: The evolution trend and the peak of water use are related to the overall situation of economic and social development and ecological environmental protection, and directly affect the overall pattern of major water conservancy projects, such as the national water grid design and construction. In this study, the definition and connotation of water-use peaking were discussed, and the natural social characteristics, including of GDP per capita, industrial structure, and the level of urbanization, when the national water-use peaking have been reached are summarized for 15 developed countries. Especially, the possible reasons for water-use amounts since 2013 presented a slowly come-down trend were identified and discussed, and then give a important conclusion that it is early to say the water-use peak has been reached in China. Finally, it is pointed out that the pressure of water resources security in China is still seriously, and there is a certain uncertainty about the evolution of water-use in the future. What is the peak water volume? and when should be the peak? The conclusion needs further deeply study. At the same time, a nice top-level design of the national water-grid project is necessary, to improve the ability to optimize the allocation of water resources at different scales, and provide water resources security for the high-quality development of the country.

     

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