复杂边界作用下三峡水库泥沙淤积特征与趋势

Sediment deposition trend in the Three Gorges Reservoir under the action of complex boundary conditions

  • 摘要: 受上游水沙条件和水库调度过程等影响, 三峡水库实际淤积过程较为复杂。本文基于一维泥沙数学模型, 分析上下游边界条件变化对三峡水库淤积特征的综合影响, 建立入库沙量和汛期坝前水位与库区淤积的经验关系, 讨论了其贡献及未来淤积趋势。结果表明: 上游干支流入库沙量和汛期坝前水位是影响三峡水库淤积的主要因素, 其变化均将造成库区淤积重心的偏移, 变动回水区下段及常年回水区上段的泥沙分选及冲淤情况受影响最为明显; 2013—2020年, 干流来沙对三峡库区淤积的贡献减小(由65%减小至42%), 支流来沙贡献逐步增大(由32%增大至56%); 汛期坝前水位变化对该时段库区淤积较2003—2012年期间的影响已经较小(1.6%~1.8%); 当遭遇平常水文年水沙过程, 未来三峡水库泥沙淤积量约在0.5亿t/a左右; 当遭遇不利洪水组合水文年, 尤其是支流发生大规模强降雨使岷江和嘉陵江洪峰流量大于30 000 m3/s时, 三峡水库泥沙淤积量约在1.6亿t/a左右。

     

    Abstract: Sedimentation in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) is relatively complicated owing to the upstream water and sediment conditions and the reservoir scheduling process. In this study, based on a one-dimensional mathematical model of sediment, we investigated the comprehensive impact of changes in upstream and downstream boundary conditions on the sedimentation characteristics of the TGR. An empirical relationship between sediment inflow, average flood-season water level of the dam, and reservoir sedimentation was established, and their contributions and future sedimentation trends are discussed. We found that sediment inflow from upstream tributaries and the average flood-season water level of the dam are the main factors affecting sedimentation in the reservoir, causing the center of gravity of the sedimentation area to shift. Changes in sediment sorting and erosion/sedimentation in the downstream backwater and upper part of the perennial backwater zones are the most affected. In recent years, the contribution of sediment from the main stem to reservoir sedimentation has decreased, and the contribution from tributaries has increased. The recent impact of changes in the average flood-season water level of the dam on reservoir sedimentation is relatively small compared to the period from 2003 to 2012. In a normal hydrological year, the estimated sedimentation volume in the Three Gorges Reservoir is approximately 50 million tons, whereas in an unfavorable flood-combined hydrological year, especially when heavy rainfall in the tributaries causes the peak flow of the Minjiang and Jialingjiang rivers to exceed 30 000 m3/s, the estimated sedimentation volume in the Three Gorges Reservoir is approximately 160 million tons.

     

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