城市洪涝灾害应急疏散模拟及其效率-公平权衡分析

Urban flood emergency evacuation simulation and its efficiency-fairness tradeoff analysis

  • 摘要: 对城市洪涝灾害下的人群疏散过程进行精细化模拟、探究群体疏散效率与个体洪涝风险暴露公平性之间的权衡关系(效率-公平之争)可以为城市洪灾应急管理提供重要决策支撑。本研究以深圳市某居民区为研究区, 构建基于主体(Agent-based)的洪灾应急疏散模型, 分析疏散人口数量、避难所容量分配、不同风险区居民分批疏散顺序以及批次之间间隔时间等因素对洪灾应急疏散的协同影响, 探究疏散过程中效率与公平的权衡关系。研究表明: 疏散效率主要受避难所容量分配方式和疏散人口数量影响, 疏散公平性主要受不同洪涝风险区居民的疏散次序影响; 洪灾应急管理部门应综合考虑人口分布和交通路网情况, 按实际需求分配避难所容量; 在疏散管理中, 应考虑洪涝风险分区, 引导居民以一定次序分批疏散, 并合理控制批次间隔时间, 从而实现城市洪涝疏散效率和公平的权衡。

     

    Abstract: To support flood management practices, it is crucial to simulate detailed human evacuation processes and examine the tradeoff between system-level evacuation efficiency and individual-level fairness of flood risk exposure, known as the efficiency-fairness tradeoff.This study focuses on a residential district in Shenzhen City as the study site and develops an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the detailed flood evacuation processes.Various scenario analyses are conducted to assess the collective evacuation performance of the community, considering factors such as the number of evacuees, strategies for allocating shelter capacity, evacuation sequences of multiple residential groups, and time delays between evacuation groups.This study also evaluates the tradeoff between efficiency and fairness during flood evacuation processes.The modeling results demonstrate that evacuation efficiency is primarily affected by shelter capacity allocation strategies and the population of evacuees, while evacuation fairness is largely affected by the evacuation sequence of multiple groups.For effective flood emergency management, authorities should consider the residential distribution and traffic network to allocate shelter capacity based on the actual evacuation demand.To achieve a balance between efficiency and fairness in flood evacuation, policymakers should account for varying flood risk levels at different locations, guide residents to evacuate in a staged order, and appropriately manage the time intervals between evacuation groups.

     

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