高度城镇化背景下珠三角地区极端降雨时空演变特征

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme rainfall in the Pearl River Delta under high urbanization

  • 摘要: 为分析城镇化发展程度与极端降雨变化之间的关系,选取珠江三角洲地区22个雨量站1973—2012年的小时降雨资料,利用空间分析、线性回归、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法,分析高度城镇化背景下珠三角地区极端降雨时空分布规律和变化特性,并解析暴雨雨型变化特征。结果表明:①珠江三角洲高度城镇化地区极端降雨量上升了44.3 mm/(10 a),呈显著增加趋势,相邻其他地区则无明显变化,高度城镇化地区的前汛期极端降雨量显著增多是造成其年极端降雨量增加的主要原因。②珠三角地区暴雨雨型以单峰型为主,其中以雨峰在前的Ⅰ型暴雨占比最高,约为33.7%,高度城镇化地区Ⅰ型暴雨发生频率明显增加,易导致暴雨内涝事件增加,需加强高度城镇化地区防洪排涝工作。

     

    Abstract: To analyze the relationship between the urbanization development degree and extreme rainfall change, hourly rainfall data from 22 rainfall stations in the Pearl River Delta region from 1973 to 2012 were selected. Methods such as spatial analysis, linear regression, sliding average, and the Mann-Kendall trend test were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution and variation characteristics of extreme rainfall and rainstorm patterns in the Pearl River Delta region under the sense of high urbanization. The results showed that extreme rainfall in highly urbanized areas of the Pearl River Delta increased by 44.3 mm/(10 a), showing a significant increase in the trend, while the other adjacent areas showed no significant change. The significant increase in extreme rainfall during the first rainy season was the main reason for the increase in the annual extreme rainfall in highly urbanized areas. In addition, the rainstorm pattern in the Pearl River Delta region was dominated by unimodal patterns, among which the proportion of type Ⅰ rainstorms was the highest (approximately 33.7%). The occurrence frequency of type Ⅰ rainstorms in highly urbanized areas has increased significantly, which easily leads to an increase in rainstorm flooding events. Therefore, flood control and drainage work in highly urbanized areas should be strengthened.

     

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